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THE WALL STREET MARKET:
Wall street has just regained its presence and balance that the market had,had just prior to the COVID-19 unveiling in January 2020.
8-12-2020
Bond Yield 0.10 to 1.25%
3 months / Best
Bank Savings Interest Rate 1.00%
American Express and Ally Bank
1 Yr. CD Rate
Marcus Commenity Ally Bank
1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
Note: Savings rates on CD have Lowered in 2020. There is a substantial penalty for early withdrawal.
E-RETV News in Brief: 8-12-2020
Research and Development
_______________________________________
FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD 8-14-20
Most Recent
Fed does not expect to raise the benchmark interest rate (3.25%) until 2023.
Fed did not indicate if the Rate would go lower before that time.
Only 2 of 17 top officials thought the rates would move any higher in 2022.
RETV.News 8-14-2020
EDITORIAL VIEWPOINT:
The USA economy was impacted when
COVID-19 became apparent in the USA. It is amazing that the gain strength USA economy has bounced back as well as it has after being locked down for almost 3 months plus a 2.5 month year to date recovery. USA is strong and when the COVID is lifted it will continue to grow under the current administration.
Rev.News 8-12-2020
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REAL ESTATE 8-12-2020
Home Prices UP in June 30, 2020
Note: FNMA indicates at a Price of 283,000 at the end of the year 2020 home will be 4% higher in 2020 compared to 2019.
USA HOME SALES
MEDIAN PRICE - Month to Month
Most Recent
6-30-2020 $295,300 (Up 45,000)
2-28-2019 $250,100
1/30//2019 $249,300
1/31/2018 $240,800
1/31/2017 $227,300
Expected to climb back to March 2020 pricing of approximately $320,000 before the end of 2020.
_______________________________________
Editor's Viewpoint: August 12, 2020
With all other major sales figures down, such as Retail Sales are at 7.5% in June 2020.
Stores-Resturant-Online Sales included above.
Car Sales Down -34.3% Average for 2020.
Used Car Sales Down -20% Average for 2020.
Forecast: As of 8-12-2020 may continue or worsen through 12/31/2020 up to .15% Average at best.
____________
Editorial Speculation: August 12-2020
The economy was growing as quickly as expected until January 2020. The breakout of COVID-19 stunned the USA economy as it did in 187 other countries.
Approximately 51% of Americans can't afford a home, or is at a poverty level. Never before 2008 has this been the case.
Trump has indicated he felt interest rates were to high for the average American. It is. The FED is yet to do anything. Currently they are reviewing the discrepancy.
As of April 2019 household income for the average American (family) is $56,516. It may make $60,000 by year end. Currently at 58,000 estimated. Note, if you don't have the affordability does it really matter?
According to government stasticts that is not enough to buy the most reasonable priced home. Over 50% of Americans are affected.
It takes about $53,016 to take care of a family of 4. That's about $10,000 +- $5,000 below the figure of including a home. Location differs.
Let's look at a snapshot American income:
March 2020. Next survey October 15, 2020.
10.7% make under $15,000 annual,
9.6% under $24,999
8.2% under $34,999
12.3% under $49,999
16.7% under $74,999
49.1% Americans(8.3% of the 16.7%) non affordability of a home)
12.5% under $99,999
___________________
From 100,000 +
14.5% under $149,999
7.0% under $199,999
7.7% at $200,000+ (Primary Beneficiary to $2.5 Trillion write down?)
___________________
Therefore economically speaking approximately
50% of Americans can not by the average home under the normal cost of goods today.
Average wages are short of a home purchase by at least $10,000. or more, a year in all reality.
This then extends to Autmobiles and so on.
To own the average family home you need approximately $60,000-$65,000 income, at least, with only $533.33 of other debt.
Also the less money there is at the peoples bottom 49.1% the more there is for the top.
RETVNews.com 6-12-2019
_______________________________________
Update Pending:
Based on release of new information.
8-12-2020
Median Household Income
January 1, 2020 $63,688.00
Average Household Income
January 1, 2020 $89,930.00
Semi Annual Archive from May 2018 article:
Individual Workers Averaged Income Annual
USA Median Income:
Average individual income 2019 $58,379.45
Source: US Census Bureau
2020- $34,285 (Up $3,186. in 3 years)
2018 - $31,364 (Up +$0.72 cents a day)
2016 - $31,099
CPI
2020 -2.5% (subject to revision 8-14-2020)
2019 - 1.7%
2018 - 2.5%
2017 - 2.0%
2016 - 1.3%
_________
2015 - 0.00
2014 - 0.00
2 Year Price increase $1,035.01
( Up -$2.83 cents a day)
Shortfall on income (- $ 770.01 Annual)
Prices increased more than income.
______________________________________
Just The Facts: Archive Date
FULL TIME WORK DEFINITION CHANGED
JANUARY 8, 2015
Changing the ACA's Definition of Full-Time Work. ... Employers may also opt to avoid the mandate by reducing hours and substituting part-time workers for full-time workers. However, contrary to the conventional 40 hour definition of full-time work, the law defines full-time employment as working at least 30 hours per week.Jan 8, 2015
JUST THE FACTS ~ WAGES SHOULD BE CALCULATED BASED ON A 35 HOUR WEEK RATHER THAN 40 HOURS.
_______________________________________
PART TIME WORK DEFINITION
A part-time contract is a form of employment that carries fewer hours per week than a full-time job. They work in shifts. The shifts are often rotational. Workers are considered to be part-time if they commonly work "1 hour" or fewer than 30 hours per week.
_______________________________________
Numbers in Millions.
USA Work Force 8-14-2020
119,613+ - 40 Hours Full Time
23,173+ - 35- (or Less Hours per week)
143,620 - Total Working
$34,288 Medium Income^(per person average)
37,834,727 - People Living in Poverty
Family of 4 Income Level $25,100 or less.
44,018,984 - Living off of Food Stamps
USA Goverment
$533,442,959 Billion added to currency circulation 2019. M2
______________________________________
Noted:
Bernie Sanders became a Millionaire in 2016
Bernie made $1 Million+ in 2016 and 2017. Then fell to $566,000. He is a Vermont Senator his wife is his part time advisior. State Senator pays $200,000. annual.
_______________________________________
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USA ECONOMIC NEWS as of Trump continues to move ahead with the issue.
April 12, 2018
REAL TIME ANALYSIS
Annual Report and Comparison
April 4, 2017
The TRUMP Trek begins to Restore America.
Obama leaves a trail of Debt for Americans.
US NATIONAL DEBT: As Of: 4-4-2018
-$21 TRILLION 115 BILLION Up from
-$19 TRILLION 963 BILLION 1/20/17
National Debt: Notes
In 2008 the National Debt as of January 9, 2008, was 9 Trillion 719 Billion. The National Debt has more than Doubled in the last nine years. -1 Trillion went to the Mortgage Crisis 2008-2009 from the G.W. Bush Administration. An additional 9 Trillion was added to the US National Debt by the Obama Administration. From 2009-2016 the National Debt more than doubled the amount that has been accruing since the 1960's
US GDP GROSS DOMESTIC
PRODUCT: Is Up +879 BILLION to
+$19 TRILLION 865 BILLION
FROM
+$18 TRILLION 986 BILLION
SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF CURRENT AND POTENTIAL GROWTH IF NOT CHOKED OFF
4/2018
US DEBT TO GDP RATIO: (-106.29) ^
Up From 4/2017 -104.49%
Worse in last 12 Months -1.88% ^
This is due to USA Debt exceeds USA Gross Domestic Product. Current Debt is increasing more than the Gross Domestic Product increase year to date.
Obama has increased the USA Dollar Supply
-963 Billion in 12/31/2016
-536 Billion 4/4/2018 Improved
427 Billion fewer dollars printed compared to 12/31/2016 IMPROVED 55%. Result a Lowered USA Debt and public tax burden to date.
Cost to each Taxpayer 12/31/2017
an additional -$2,962.00 Annual.
Down to -$1,629.00 4/4/2018 est.
With no apparent Benefit to the USA Taxpayer.
As of 4/4/2018 - - - - -
The above negative ratio indicates that the USA is spending more money than produces.
In 2018 Congress and President Trump passed 1 Trillion 300 Billion USA Budget.
This is the first realistic US Government increase since 9/11.
Budget Deficit listed below are for each year shown with a similar amount increasing annually for years not shown. Milestones.
Year Deficit Amount
2002 - -$158 Billion - G.W. Bush
2008 - -$459 Billion - G.W. Bush
2012 - -$1 Trillion 87 Billion - Obama
2016 - -$767 Billion - Obama
2017 - -$812 Billion - Obama >Trump
2018 est -$633 Billion - Trump
The increasing Debt of the war effort is approaching 1 Trillion Dollars Annually.
This amount is approximately the same amount that is being added to our National Debt annually. -$1 Trillion Dollars of Taxpayer Liability proposed for 2019.
Approximately -$1 Trillion Dollars of War Debt over the existing 1 Trillion 200 Billion 2018 Budget.
Without the expanding World War effort the USA in a very stretched sense would be within the proposed budget set for 2018.
The USA War Chest is approaching $700 Billion. This is more than 10x that of any other Country in the World.
In comparison, FDR Debt of World War II was -$21 Billion Dollars in 1942 and -$55 Billion in 1943 estimated Annual.
2016:
The Obama Administration and Congress is -$592 BILLION OVER THE 1 TRILLION 100 BILLION US 2016 BUDGET. Expressed as a percentage that is 53.81% ^ over budget. The Obama, US War chest is 548 Billion. The USA is not a healthy economy at this time.
AAmericans Living in Poverty exceed 42 Million or 12.96% 1/2017. This number has improved as of 4/2018 to just over 39 Million. 2017: Americans Living off Food Stamps is 41 Million1/2017. 4/2018: This number has improved to just under 41 Million. Both sets of numbers encompass different Americans with some duplication.
December 31, 2008, Comparison (year-end)
US NATIONAL DEBT:
-10 TRILLION 447 BILLION
US GDP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT:
+13 TRILLION 976 BILLION
US DEBT TO GDP RATIO: +35.46%
The above positive GDP Ratio reflects a USA economy that has produced more than it has spent.
BOTTOM LINE: 1/31/2017
WORSE 2008 TO 12/31/2016 -41.83%
January 31, 2017 -41.15%
THE USA ECONOMY IS OVER -40.00%
WORSE AS OF JANUARY 31, 2017 THAN
IT WAS IN DECEMBER 31, 2008. Improving
This does not include random Money printing.
AVERAGE INFLATION RATE
COMPARISON
YEARS INFLATION RATE AVERAGE
2017 TO 2018 1.8% Moderate Low
2009 TO 2016 1.4% Recession
2000 TO 2008 2.9% Moderate
America as a Democracy powered by Capitalism should have a positive "Growth at a Rate." This includes Real Estate and Retail Sales as a Country.
In order to do so a 2.5% Inflation Rate is Low and a 3.5% Inflation Rate is Moderate High when compared to USA history and the current Global Economy.
See World News page grid.
_______________________________________
EXIT BENCHMARK: 3/28/2017
USA Full Time Employment Needed:
1 Million 215 Thousand Americans
To get back to 2008 Actual Unemployed Level
_______________________________________
USA Overall Debt
As of 1/10/2017: Obama EXIT BENCHMARK
As of 4/04/2018: Trump Current Performance
US Budget Deficit: -$5 Trillion 645 Billion
US Budget Deficit: -$6 Trillion 001 Billion
Social Security: -$15 Trillion 619 Billion
Social Security: -$16 Trillion 877 Billion
Medicare: -$27 Trillion 720 Billion
Medicare: -$27 Trillion 879 Billion
Total 1/10/2017: -$48 Trillion 984 Billion
Total 4/04/2018: - $50 Trillion 757 Billion
_______________________________________
USA Overall Debt Continued:
Total 1/10/2017:
Total 4/12/2018:
Unfunded Liabilities : -$55 Trillion 777 Billion
Unfunded Liabilities: -$62 Trillion 008 Billion
National Debt: -$19 Trillion 954 Billion
National Debt: -$21 Trillion 931 Billion
Federal Reserve Deficit -$3 Trillion 200 Billion
Federal Reserve Deficit -$3 Trillion 200 Billion
Liability Per USA Taxpayer
$875 Thousand 156 Dollars as of 1/10/2017
$929 Thousand 559 Dollars as of 4/12/2018
Real time analysis: 4/2018
Trump FUTURE PROJECTION: 2021
_______________________________________
Not counted above:
US Government IOU's to the American Public +2 Trillion 600 Billion + Yield for all Monies Removed from the Social Security Trust Fund completed without voter approval.
US Government War Chest: +$633 Billion
National Debt Annual Interest: +$225 Billion
USA Budget 2018 $1 Trillion 300 Billion
_______________________________________
4/4/2018
TODAY
ACTUAL
US Budget Deficit: -$6 Trillion 001 Billion
Social Security: -$16 Trillion 879 Billion
Medicare: -$27 Trillion 879 Billion
Additional Unfunded Liabilities+ National Debt -$61 Trillion 917 Billion
Liability Per USA Taxpayer
$875 Thousand 156 Dollars as of 1/10/2017
$929 Thousand 014 Dollars as of 4/04/2018
_______________________________________
Editor Noted: War Funding is approximately -$633 Billion going up to 1 Trillion annually.
In 2015 it was $736 and 2016 $767 Billion.
USA Budget 1 Trillion 300 Billion "estimated"
Defense Spending - Non defense spending
2018 - $633 Billion - $539 Billion USA
2019 - $700 Billion - $590 Billion USA
2020 - $715 Billion - $605 Billion USA
_______________________________________
Further USA Economic News may be found on the Daytona USA Financial News and Daytona USA World News pages.
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TRUMP ADMINISTRATION 2020:
Major Accomplishments for the People;
1) 4 Million Jobs since election in 2016/17
2) 400,000 Manufacturing jobs.
3) Economic Growth hit 4.2%
4) Unemployment 49 year low at 3.5% - 9/2019.
5) Median Income highest level ever recorded.
6) African-Hispanic-Asian Lowest unemployment ever recorded.
7) Womens unemploymnet Lowest in 65 years
8) Signed biggest tax cuts in history.
On and On
America & Worldwide is attacked by:
COVID-19 (Hunan China Virus January 2020)
Rebuild America from COVID-19 (June 2020)
Trump continues with Democracy and the American way.
_____________________________________
Median Household Income 2020- $78,500.00
Median Household Income 2016- $57,617.00
Trump Speculation per Thousand Dollars:
Trumps Initial Personal Income Plan Per from 1/20/2017:
$1000.00 Earnings
+280.00. Inflation at 3.5% over 8 years
$1280.00 Earnings in 8 years
______________________________________
$500.00 Expenses for the $1000. Earnings
+140.00 Inflation at 3.5% over 8 years
$640.00 Expenses in 8 years
______________________________________
+$13,440. End Game per $1000.00 of Income
______________________________________
Benchmark for Real Estate Appreciation 7.5% Annual
______________________________________
$100,000 Home Value 1/1/2017
$178,347 Estimated Value 1/1/2025
+$78,347 End Game Per $100,000
Real Estate Invested
______________________________________
$100,000 Stock Market Investment
$152,308 Yield Estimated at 5.4% Annual
+$52,308 Per $100,000 Invested in the market.
or
+ $5,230 Per $10,000 Invested in the market.
______________________________________
USA Economic Advancement
2019 History
______________________________________
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USA PRODUCTIVITY
Projection
4th Quarter 2018 GDP Growth was 2.2%, lower than expected.
Average for 2018 3.025%
1st Quarter Report 2019
GDP 3.1%
2nd Qtr. Pending Up 75,000 Jobs in May 2019.
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JOB GROWTH
FED indicates Unemployment Benefit Rate up from 3.8% in May to 4.0 %in June 2018 to 3.7% in Sept. Most jobs to existing employed under 40 hours.
Unemployment is 3.6%
Actual Unemployment over 12 monts is about 7.2%
Job growth 3.9 Million Jobs over 94 consective months since 11-2016
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Congressional Budget Office
Above Averages Courtesy of RETV.News
_______________________________________________
Noted: Preceeding Administration 2008-2016
1.9375% GDP
Only 2011-12 Election year increase.
Otherwise 7 years at the recession level.
History
______________________________________
USA ANNUAL INFLATION RATE
Trump Target 2.5% - 3.5%
____
Economic Inflation Range Benchmarks
+1.5% Recession
+2.0% Low to Moderate
+2.5% Moderate Low
+3.0% Moderate
+3.5% Moderate High
____
A Moderate level is necessary to
"Make America Great Again".
Inflation is needed for growth.
____
1.5% is a Top 10 Country Recession Level
2.5% is a Top 10 Country Moderate Level
____
INFLATION RATE
2019 +1.81 %
| 2018 |
+2.4%* |
Moderate |
| 2017 |
+2.1%* |
Low to Moderate |
| 2016 |
+1.3%* |
Recession (Obama) |
| 2015 |
+0.1%* |
Recession (Obama) |
INFLATION RATE FOR 2020 YEAR TO DATE 0.61
2020 - JANUARY - AUGUST admid COVID-19 Virus
*COURTESY OF THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
_________________________________
RETV News Alert ~ USA FIRST 8 MONTHS 2020
Currently the fluctuating Inflation Rates as shown, indicate COVID-19 economic impact.
Upward Inflation Rates show stable growth.
A 3.5%+ Inflation Rate is the rate or value of a economy that is beginning to overheat, less than 1.5% Recessionary.
_________________________________
Bureau of Labor Statistics
USA Inflation Rate 2019-2018 by the Month
Inflation Rate ____%for 2020 (COVID-19)
2.30% for 2019
2.44% for 2018
| Jan. 2020 |
0.4% |
Feb. 20 |
0.3% |
| March 20 |
-0.2% |
April 20 |
-0.7% |
| May 20 |
0.0% |
June 20 |
0.6% |
| July 20 |
0.5% |
August 20 |
% |
| Sept. 20 |
% |
Oct. 20 |
% |
| Nov. 20 |
% |
Dec. 20 |
% |
USA Inflation Rate
Inflation Rate Down Due to COVID-19
All items less food and energy in U.S. city average, all urban consumers, not seasonally adjusted.
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Revisions Courtesy of:
US Bureau Of Labor Statistics
August 14,2020
Inflation Rates adjusted as Reported by
US Bureau of Labor Statistics
all items less food and energy
____________________________________
2021
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION GOALS
OFFICIAL PROJECTIONS
US Budget Deficit: -$4 Trillion 984 Billion
Social Security: -$22 Trillion 765 Billion
Medicare: -$28 Trillion 311 Billion
Total 7/8/2021: -$56 Trillion 060 Billion
Unfunded Liabilities: -$49 Trillion 416 Billion
National Debt 2021:
-$22 Trillion 734 Billion 119 Billion
2021 estimates are Subject to Revision
National Debt:
Actual National Debt as of : 1/2017:
-$19 Trillion 540 Billion
Actual National Debt as of 6/12/2019:
-$22 Trillion 370 Billion, 594 Million
______________________________________
Editorial: 8-14-2019
Election Nov. 6, 2020
Democrats in their last rein 2008- 2016 raised the national debt and additional amount of $6 Trillion divided by the appropriate amount for each year(s) cummlative, over budget.
In addition the Democratic heirarchy incresased the Federal Reserve Bank Debt approximately from 400 Billion 2010 to $2.5 Trillion ($2.5 Trillion actuallly) by the end of 2016.
Free money but not for Americans. This debt is not being repaid, it is being (now) a "write off". The "write off to date" is $85 Billion since June 2017.
Therefore some body(s) between 2008-2016 has received $2.5 Trillion Dollars at no cost non repayment during 2010 to 2016. This is in addition to the $6 Trillion acceleration to the National debt above. The difference being (National Debt should be -$16 Trillion not
-$22 Trillion on the National Debt. On the Federal Reserve Debt -$2.38 Trillion which is (Total Federal Reserve Debt of $4.5 Trillion
- $2.38 Trillion leaving -$2.12 Trillion. For What?
The Mortgage Crisis was paid in full through the USA debt as noted by the Federal Reserve 2009 . So that is not a concern for the aforementioned calculation.
What was done by the preceeding administration 2008-2016 was an expansion of the war. About 4 Countries to 8 Countries. None of which we can win in all probablity.
That is why the National Debt has exceeded the USA Debt Implosion level now in 2019 instead of 2021-2023 as originally extimated bu USA government offices. That is why the Federal Reserve Bank (acting as bankrupt on the -$2.5 Trillion debt), (being ignored) is in a write off the debt mode.
The Federal Reserve should only have a negative balance at the end of each year for the balance of the spending debt allowed for the following year.
RETV News
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REAL ESTATE
USA AVERAGE HOME
INCOME QUALIFIER INFO
8-19-2020
most recent releases
___
Median Individual's Income
August 14, 2020
$ 34,302. 00^
INDIVIDUAL
2 Wage Earners Family
$68,604. 00
($5,717.00 Monthly)
___
Estimated Median Family Income
$53,257 ^ As of the year 2020
Middle Class is considered $30,000 TO $50,000 this year.
___
PURCHASE PRICE $295,000
Loan Amount $236,000
Qualify with 20% Down $59,000.
QUALIFY FOR $236,000
Qualify with $5750. Mo
___
Loan Rate 3.06% 30 due in 30 Yrs.
Payment $1351.75 a Month
Taxes and Insurance $300.00
Other Debt $533.33
$1651.00 PITI and Debt per Month
Ratios
28.96/ 38.01
___
80% LTV Ratios
33.00 / 38.00
A Cash Down Payment of 20% is
estimated at $59,000 Plus closing cost and cash reserves of approximately $10,000.00. Total cash required $69,000. -+ to close escrow.
Average USA 2 wage earner family has to have
about $78,500 to enter the home ownership market.
This is Up 4% from 2019
|
| Home Loan |
Point Cost Est |
Retail Rate |
| 30/30 - 417K |
0% |
3.06% v |
| 5/25 - 417K |
0% |
3.62% v |
| 15/15 - 417K |
0% |
2.67% v |
| 30/30 + 418K |
0% |
3.40% v
|
| Point Cost Lowers Rate |
FNMA FHLMC |
Retail
Averaged Rate |
| Commercial 7 Yr. Fixed Due in 20 $6,000,000. |
0% |
4.90% v
|
| Prime Rate |
3.25% v
5.50%
5.25%
5.00%
4.75%
4.50%
4.25%
3.50%
|
8-14-2020
9-26-2018
6-12-2018
3/22/2018
12/14/2017
9/30/2017
10/1/2016
10/1/2015
|
Fannie Mae
60 Day Rate Delivery 30/30 YR. |
1.18% v
3.34% v
4.54%
4.16%
4.25%
4.28%
4.05%
4.00%
3.58%
|
8-14-2020
6-12-2019
10-11-2018
7-13-2018
6-14-2018
5/15/2018
4/04/2018
2/13/2018
12/27/2017
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Foreclosures
USA HOME FORECLOSURES REPORTED
Foreclosure Filings 2019 - 493,066 12/31/2019
Foreclosure Filings in 2018 -602,827 10/12/2018
Foreclosure Filings in 2017 -676,535 12/31/2017
Foreclosure Filings in 2016 -933,045 12/31/2016
RETV.News Research and Development
CURRENT HISTORY 2019
Foreclosure Filings ~ Dec 2019 493,066 v
Foreclosure Filings ~ April. 2018 651,979
Down -158,913 v
Note: The above figure does not include defaults, auctions and repositions as shown in the annual figures below. These numbers are the best representation of the activity on the banking market
________
Courtesy of RETV.News 8/14/2020 Update
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