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STOCK MARKET
Advancing issues lead Declining issues 2.5 to 1, only by slight margins, as of 9/30/2016.Yields on the Stock Market are volatile at best. The market is showing only slight gains. It appears to still be a "buy down " market, to be in a Yielding capacity.
THE GLOBAL MARKET
Of the top 9 Euro Markets only 3 are up today, DAX Germany up +0.09%, Shanghai Composite (China) up +0.21% and Brazil Bovespa up +0.31% as markets near close.
GOVERNMENT
The US Federal Reserve Board Chair, Janet Yellen a Democratic Appointee, has indicated that when the USA Inflation Rate reaches a Mid- Depressionary Level of 2% the FED will raise Interest Rates guaranteed. A possible increase could occur prior to reaching the 2% inflation number. When this happens, in all probability there is no recovery in sight for Americans and America.
The Near Future
The FED Chair is banking on Christmas Orders for increased production to raise Interest Rate in the USA.
It is a known fact that there will be a normal increase in Production the second half of 2016, due to the preparation of products for Christmas orders. The USA economy is currently running at a Depression Level and the low Inflation Rate of 1.0 % average for 2013-2015-2015-2016, is expected to continue to 2016 year end as projected.
STOCK MARKET
The Upside is the FED did not increase Interest Rates at their last meeting September 20-21, 2016.
A FUTURE FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
Editorial Viewpoint on Just The Facts
The current US on Welfare system, has got to go or Americans will be taxed and our economic freedoms will continue to disappear.
There is no quick fix at this time. Important issues needed to be resolved years ago.
What needs to happen is a strong emerging America in Company's, Stock and Bond Markets with acceptable Price to Earning Ratios. Trickle down Entrepreneur Business Opportunities, need to be part of the plan fueled by the corporations that have bolstering business stemming from government contracts and America's future value in mind.
Real Estate availability to all, needs to be re-accessed to boost the National Economy, With business expanding not only in the Commercial sector, but also in the Residential Purchase Market. The most common American asset, "The Dream Home" needs to become a reality for everyone earning a modest to good living. Foreclosure and the chance of losing the Family Home needs to be exempted to some degree based on any new plan.
Security in Jobs and Income and to know your wages will go up and not down, like the posted results that have occurred in the last 5 years. Lower income annually is prevailing with the number of jobs increasing.
Again America needs to be the primary resource for Americans to access, for Profit today and Retirement tomorrow, independent of and in addition to Social Security. "Secured investments" instead of "blue sky investment"
need to prevail.
Real Estate is usually the largest single investment the average American understands and makes in their lifetime. This investment should have the opportunity to last a lifetime.
The USA needs to use all our assets to emerge in the next 5 years get through this current Euro economic down turn.
Editors notes: RETV.News ~ N E Robinson
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USA ECONOMIC DATA AS OF
SEPTEMBER 30, 2016
September 30, 2016
US NATIONAL DEBT:
9/30/2016 -$19 TRILLION 534 BILLION
8/30/2016 -$19 TRILLION 440 BILLION
UP 94 BILLION
MONEY PRINTING
NEW MONEY IN CIRCULATION
1/1/2016 TO 9/30/2016 -$908 BILLION
1/1/2016 TO 8/30/2016 -$858 BILLION
UP $50 BILLION
Additional Taxpayer responsibility & possibly devaluation of the US dollar
US GDP GROSS DOMESTIC
PRODUCT:
+$18 TRILLION 531 BILLION
US DEBT TO GDP RATIO: -105.41%
Including 2016 Money Printing -110.00%
The above negative ratio indicates that
the USA is spending more money than produces.
USA is not a healthy economy at this time.
December 31, 2008
US NATIONAL DEBT:
-10 TRILLION 447 BILLION
US GDP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT:
+13 TRILLION 976 BILLION
US DEBT TO GDP RATIO: +35.46%
The above positive GDP Ratio reflects a USA economy that has produced more than it has spent.
BOTTOM LINE: 9/30/2016
WORSE 2008 TO 2016 -45.46%
THE USA ECONOMY IS OVER - 45%
WORSE AS OF SEPTEMBER 29, 2016 THAN
IT WAS IN DECEMBER 31, 2008.
AVERAGE INFLATION RATE
COMPARISON
YEARS INFLATION RATE AVERAGE
2000 TO 2008 2.9% Moderate
2009 TO 2016 (Sept) 1.1% Depressionary
America as a Democracy powered
by Capitalism should have a positive
"Growth At A Rate".
In order to do so a 2.5% Inflation Rate is Low and a 3.5% Inflation Rate is Moderate when compared to USA history and the current Global Economy.
A 2% Inflation Rate is Mid - Depressionary Inflation.
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REAL ESTATE MARKET
Existing Home Sales are down -0.9% Nationally for August coupled with a -3.2% for July 2016.That is, Home Sales Down -4.1% in two months.
The Federal Reserve Board's promise to increase Interest Rates before year end may be adding a scare into the Real Estate Market.
For 2016, the National Existing Home Sales have ddeclined a Total of -11.2%. The negative months are February, July and August. On the Gainers side it is was up +10.1% for the remaining months. Currently the Overall Market is down Nationally -1.1% average when compared to 2015 at this time.
The Average Home Sale Price Adjusted Down to $240,200. as of September 1, 2016
ANALYSIS
WHAT'S THE PROBLEM WITH
REAL ESTATE GROWTH?
| Available Money |
Personal Income |
USA ANNUAL INFLATION RATE
COMPARE AUGUST 2016 TO PRECEDING YEARS
2016 + 1.06%
2015 + 0.20%
2015 + 1.70%
2013 + 1.52%
Inflation Rates 2013-2014-2015-2016
Courtesy of
US Bureau Of Labor Statistics
2016-2015-2014-2013
is a 8 Month Average
from January through August.
America
"Growth At A Rate"
A Low Inflation Rate is 2.5%
A High Inflation Rate is 3.5%
Courtesy of RETV.News
REAL ESTATE FUTURES
The Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen a Democratic Appointee continues to indicate that the Fed will increase Interest Rate before the end of 2016.
The Euro Central Bank has been experiencing Negative Interest Rates for 2016. China and Japan have Government Stimulus Plans in effect for their Country's slowing and poor Economy.
The FED's focus seems to be obscure in that any upward movement in Interest Rates will put America and Americans in the same welfare area as the Euro, China and Japan and others soon to follow.
The Benchmark for a Growing Economy in America is a Inflation Rate of +3.5%. The 2016 Annual Projection for the USA Inflation Rate is +1.06%. (with no standing Inventory) Inder a 1% Inflation Rate is a Economy that is in a GDP Economic Depression. The USA has been at the 1% level or lower since 2013.
REPORT ELECTION DAY 2016
Democratic Administration Economic Data
10-29-2008 THROUGH 10-29- 2016
America and Americans
Black=Improved Red=Worse
10/29/2008 Actual Unemployment 10/29/2016
13,556,452 15,496,782
Up 1 Million 940 Thousand
10-29-2008 Living In Poverty 10-29-2016
39,378,743 43,114,879
Up 3 Million 736 Thousand
10-29-2008 Food Stamp Recipient 10-29-2016
32,602,488 42,839,722
Up 10 Million 237 Thousand
Is this an improving American Economy?
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USA AVERAGE HOME
QUICK QUALIFIER INFO
7/30/2016
Median Individual's Income
2016 - $30,349.
2000 - $28,408.
Estimated Average Family Income
2016 - $52,000
2015 - $53,657
2014 - $54,642
Home Average Price Down
8/2016 - $240,200.
Loan Amount
$192,160.
Income to Qualify with 20% Down $4333.33 Month (or $52,000. Annual)
Loan Rate 3.75% 30 due in 30 Yrs.
Payment $889.92 a Month
Taxes and Insurance $249.00
Other Debt $533.33
$1672.25 PITI and Debt per Month
Underwriting Variance is estimated
upward at +2%
Cash Down Payment required is
estimated at $48,040. plus closing cost and cash reserves.
Note:
Red indicates a Potential Deficiency
Average Family Savings $9,599.00
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| Home Loan |
Wholesale |
Retail Rate |
| 30/30 -417K |
3.64% |
3.75% |
| 5/25 -417K |
2.92% |
3.25% |
| 15/15 -417K |
2.95% |
3.25% |
| 30/30 +418K |
3.64% |
3.875% |
| Point Cost |
0%
FNMA FHLMC |
Unknown |
| Commercial 10 Yr. Fixed Due in 20 $6,000,000. |
0 Cost |
5.375% |
| Prime Rate |
3.50% |
unchanged |
Fannie Mae
60 Day Delivery 30/30 YR. |
2.89% |
9/29/2016 |
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HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF
Foreclosure Filings are down
as of August 2016.
USA
Foreclosure Filings in 2016 - 514,586
Foreclosure Filings in 2015 - 1,100,000
Foreclosure Filings in 2014 - 1,100,000
2016 is for January to September 29, 2016
Everything improves in an Election Year!
Courtesy of Realty Track
Compare Pre Bubble
Foreclosure Filings in 2004 - 640,000
Courtesy RETV.News.
SPECULATION:
Due to the fact that the Existing Home Sales Market is diving in July and August and that the summer buyers have bought their kids school clothes and school has started, who is buying?
The primary thrust of the Real Estate Market are these American Families.
Home Mortgage Rates need to go Down from the existing 3.75% Fixed Rate 30 Year Loan to 3.25% and maybe as low as 3.0% at a zero retail point cost to maintain a 0.00% Existing Home Sales Market for 2016.
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