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WALL STREET: .
THE GLOBAL MARKET
Wall Street closes 2017 with indexes moving up from the from about 19000 in January to 25000 through December a whopping +24%.
As P/E Price to Earning Ratios run wild and emerging growth markets lead the way with about 40% of the stock and bond markets.
Emerging Markets are speculative when compared to USA Blue Chip Stock companies, in that, long term stability is questionable.
Current Stock Market Growth can be compared to housing growth. An example of this is " I think my home is worth 190,000 but I will sell it to you for 250,000 if you will pay me that for the home, despite the fact if the home were appraised the value estimate may be 95,000.
GOVERNMENT:
FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD 11-15-2017
RATE HIKE POSITION ~ Rate Hike
The current FED Chair and Board of Governors continue to embrace emerging markets at the cost to the American taxpayer.
The Prime Lending Rate was again increased on December 14, 2017 to 4.50%,without any consideration to a failing, actually non existing postive USA Retail Sales, Housing and adequate predominate minimum wage growth USA economy in 2017.
The 40 Hour Week
1) The U.S Bureau of the Census has the annual real median personal income at $31,099 in 2016.
2) The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a median personal income of $865 weekly for all full-time workers in 2017. $44,980
3) As a reference point, the US minimum wage since 2009 has been $7.25 per hour for 2080 hours in a typical work year. This is a 40 Hour Week 52 weeks a year income of $15,080.
4) It is estimated that 50% of Full time workers are professionals or upper level management and in this category earn between $40,000 and $50,000 annual.
5) Two "professional" wage earners can afford to live as a average American Family.
6) Two wage earners in America are living just above the Poverty level of approximately $22,500.
7) Current estimates on poverty in the U.S. The official poverty rate is 13.5 percent, based on the U.S. Census Bureau's 2015 estimates. That year, an estimated 43.1 million Americans lived in poverty according to the official measure.
8) Poverty Level on the Level today 12-30-2017:
Americans Living in Poverty: 41,878,701
"Forty One Million, Eight Hundred and Seventy Eight Thousand, Seven Hundred and One"
Americans Living on Food Stamps:41,689,998
"Forty One Million, Six Hundred and Eighty Nine Thousand, Nine Hundred and Ninety Eight"
Full Time Workers in the USA 127,253,798.
Full Time is 35 hours to 40 hours per week for 52 weeks Annual.
12-30-2017
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Editors comment: There is no importance to the US government as to the earnings of the American citizen.
The Government and Federal Reserve Board interest in jobs is only the number of Americans that have a job at $1.00 or more annually is offered as a example.
For this number, when provided to the Euro or World Banking administrations, is a catalyst for the aforementioned to Loan more money to the governments who have better or bigger numbers.
In the USA then, this creates more debt for the people and more cash for its government to disburse to public concerns, special interest and political constituencies at the cost of the taxpayer.
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REAL ESTATE FUTURES EXPANDED:
Prime Lending Rate Unchanged to date 11-15-2017:
4.50% up +1.00% from 12-2016 to 12-2017.
Speculation:
The four quarters of the a New USA 2017 is still posting a Recession, is in the books.
There are several factors that have been enacted but none have shown any benefit to the voter and taxpayers of the USA.
This may be due to the current over shadowing of the former administration from 2009 to 2016.
It is also due to the fact that the the American public has been abandoned by its own government who is embracing Wall Street.
The simple solution is government may embrace Wall Street if Wall Street embraces the American voter, taxpayor and citizens.
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USA ECONOMIC DATA AS OF
July 6, 2017
Year end Update pending.
July 6, 2017
The TRUMP Trek begins to Restore America.
Obama leaves a trail of Debt for Americans.
US NATIONAL DEBT: SINCE 1-20-2017
-$19 TRILLION 963 BILLION Down
180 DAYS Down -$17 BILLION
National Debt: Notes
In 2008 the National Debt as of January 9, 2008 was 9 Trillion 719 Billion. The National Debt has more than Doubled in the last 9 years. The National Debt is down in the last 180 days!
US GDP GROSS DOMESTIC
PRODUCT:
+$18 TRILLION 986 BILLION
Last 120 DAYS Up +76 BILLION
US DEBT TO GDP RATIO: -104.49%
Improved in last 120 days +1.88%
USA Debt exceeds USA Income.
Obama has increased the USA Dollar Supply
-963 Billion in 12/31/2016
-754 Billion 7/06/2017 Improved
209 Billion less dollars printed
in the last 180 days. IMPROVED 20% Lower
Cost to each Taxpayer 12/31/2017
an additional -$2,962.00 Annual.
Down to $2,310.00 7/06/2017 est.
With no apparent Benefit to the USA Taxpayer.
As of 1/31/2107
The above negative ratio indicates that
the USA is spending more money than produces. The Obama Administration and Congress is -$592 BILLION OVER THE 1 TRILLION 100 BILLION US 2016 BUDGET. Expressed as a percentage that is
53.81% ^ over budget. The Obama, US War chest is 548 Billion. The USA is not a healthy economy at this time. Americans Living in Poverty exceed 42 Million or 12.96%. Americans Living off Food Stamps is 41 Million. Both sets of number encompass different Americans with some duplication.
December 31, 2008 Comparison (year end)
US NATIONAL DEBT:
-10 TRILLION 447 BILLION
US GDP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT:
+13 TRILLION 976 BILLION
US DEBT TO GDP RATIO: +35.46%
The above positive GDP Ratio reflects a USA economy that has produced more than it has spent.
BOTTOM LINE: 1/31/2017
WORSE 2008 TO 12/31/2016 -41.83%
January 31,2017 -41.15%
THE USA ECONOMY IS OVER -40.00%
WORSE AS OF JANUARY 31, 2017 THAN
IT WAS IN DECEMBER 31, 2008. Improving
This does not include random Money printing.
AVERAGE INFLATION RATE
COMPARISON
YEARS INFLATION RATE AVERAGE
2017 Average. 2.21% Moderate Low
2009 TO 2016 1.4% Recession
2000 TO 2008 2.9% Moderate
America as a Democracy powered
by Capitalism should have a positive
"Growth At A Rate".
In order to do so a 2.5% Inflation Rate is Low and a 3.5% Inflation Rate is Moderate when compared to USA history and the current Global Economy. See World News page grid.
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EXIT BENCHMARK: 3/28/2017
USA Full Time Employment Needed:
1 Million 215 Thousand Americans
To get back to 2008 Actual Unemployed Level
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As of 1/10/2017: EXIT BENCHMARK
US Budget Deficit: -5 Trillion 645 Billion
Social Security: -15 Trillion 619 Billion
Medicare: -27 Trillion 720 Billion
Total 1/10/2017 -48 Trillion 984 Billion
Unfunded Liabilities -55 Trillion 777 Billion
National Debt: -19 Trillion 954 Billion
Federal Reserve Deficit: -3 Trillion 200 Billion
Liability Per USA Taxpayer
$875 Thousand 156 Dollars as of 1/10/2017
NEXT ANALYSIS 1/10/2018
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Not counted above:
US Government IOU's to the American Public +2 Trillion 600 Billion + Yield for all Monies Removed from the Social Security Trust Fund completed without voter approval.
US Government War Chest: +633 Billion
National Debt Annual Interest is: 225 Billion
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~~~~Forecast from 1/20/2017 to 7/8/2021~~~~
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION
OFFICIAL PROJECTIONS FOR "2021"
BASED ON FIRST 180 DAYS IN OFFICE
US Budget Deficit: -4 Trillion 984 Billion
Social Security: -22 Trillion 765 Billion
Medicare: -28 Trillion 311 Billion
Total 7/8/2021: -56 Trillion 060 Billion
Unfunded Liabilities: -49 Trillion 416 Billion
National Debt: -22 Trillion 734 Billion
~~2021 estimates are Subject to Revision~~
US Debt 2017: -67 Trillion 572 Billion
US Debt 1990: -13 Trillion 385 Billion
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REAL ESTATE:
1. The "tax-cut" bill
(Reduces Corporate Tax and limits property tax deduction)
2. Neil Gorsuch’s confirmation to the Supreme Court. (Promotes balance in the Court)
3. Roll-back of regulations (Small Business)
4. The travel ban (Immigration enforcement)
5. Declaring Jerusalem the Capital of Israel
(For USA Embassy Relations)
6. Withdrawal from Paris climate deal
(Due to may impact Make America Great Again)
7. Pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership(Renegotiate NAFTA to America's best interest)
8. Roll-back of some of Obama’s Cuba policies
(To Minimize any terror threats)
9. Moving to repeal Obama’s net neutrality rules
(A win for less government oversight)
10. Fighting — and further degrading — ISIS
(Progress against terrorism)
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Trump Speculation per Thousand Dollars:
Trumps Initial Personal Income Plan Per from 1/20/2017:
$1000.00 Earnings
+280.00. Inflation at 3.5% over 8 years
$1280.00 Earnings in 8 years
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$500.00 Expenses for the $1000. Earnings
+140.00 Inflation at 3.5% over 8 years
$640.00 Expenses in 8 years
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+$13,440. End Game per $1000.00 of Income
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Benchmark for Real Estate Appreciation 7.5% Annual
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$100,000 Home Value 1/1/2017
$178,347 Estimated Value 1/1/2025
+$78,347 End Game Per $100,000
Real Estate Invested
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$100,000 Stock Market Investment
$152,308 Yield Estimated at 5.4% Annual
+$52,308 Per $100,000 Invested in the market.
or
+ $5,230 Per $10,000 Invested in the market.
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USA ANNUAL INFLATION RATE
Trump Target +2.5% to +3.5%
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2017 11 Month Average
for January through November 2017.
| 2017 |
+2.1% |
11 Month Average |
| 2016 |
+1.3% |
Recession +1.0 < 2.5% |
| 2015 |
+0.1% |
Depression 0.0% < 1.0% |
| 2014 |
+1.6% |
Recession +1.0% < 1.5% |
RETV.News
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USA Inflation Rate 2017 by the Month
| January |
2.5% |
February |
2.7% |
| March |
2.2% |
April |
2.4% |
| May |
1.9% |
June |
1.6% |
| July |
1.7% |
August |
1.9% |
| September |
2.2% |
October |
2.0% |
| November |
2.2% |
December |
% |
USA IR Average Year To Date +2.1%
Averages Courtesy of RETV.News |
Inflation Rates 2014-2015-2016-2017
Courtesy of
US Bureau Of Labor Statistics
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USA AVERAGE HOME
QUICK QUALIFIER INFO
11/1/2017
most recent releases
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Median Individual's Income
is 50% or more of wage earners.
11/1/2017
2017 - $30,604.
2000 - $29,231.
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Estimated Average Family Income
2016 - $56,516
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USA Home Median Price ^ Up
11/30/2017 $248,000
9/30/2017 $245,100
8/30/2017 $253,100
7/30/2017 $263,800
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Loan Amount $211,040
Income to Qualify with 20% Down $4709.66 Qualify with $56,516. Annual
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Loan Rate 4.25% 30 due in 30 Yrs.
Payment $1038.00 a Month
Taxes and Insurance $249.00
Other Debt $533.33
$1820.33 PITI and Debt per Month
Ratios
27.33 / 38.65
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The dollar difference in the loan payment amount for a 4.25% mortgage is $1038.00 vs. $894.00 or +$144. more per month when compared to a 3.375% interest rate from a year ago.
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In addition underwriting guidelines have tightened as rates are planned by the FED to go up to about 5% by 2017 year end and to 6% by year end 2018.
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Underwriting Variance is estimated
upward at +2%
Ratios
33.00 / 38.00
A Cash Down Payment of 20% is
estimated at $52,760. plus closing cost and cash reserves of approximately $12,640.00. Total cash required $63,200.00.
Note:
Average Family Savings of $5,018.00 v
indicates a potential financial ability deficiency to purchase any home over $75,000.
Average USA Family has exited the home ownership market.
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| Home Loan |
Point Cost Est |
Retail Rate |
| 30/30 - 417K |
0% |
4.16% v |
| 5/25 - 417K |
0% |
3.49% ^ |
| 15/15 - 417K |
0% |
3.60% ^ |
| 30/30 +418K |
0% |
4.14% ^
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| Point Cost Lowers Rate |
FNMA FHLMC |
Retail
Averaged Rate |
| Commercial 7 Yr. Fixed Due in 20 $6,000,000. |
0% |
5.79% |
| Prime Rate |
4.50%
4.25%
3.50%
3.25%
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12/14/2017
9/30/2017
10/1/2016
10/1/2015
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Fannie Mae
60 Day Rate Delivery 30/30 YR. |
3.58%
3.51%
3.47%
3.48%
3.65%
2.94% |
12/27/2017
11/01/2017
9/28/2017
8/02/2017
1/09/2017
7/27/2016 |
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USA HOME FORECLOSURES REPORTED UP
+105,080 Since July 2017
in the last 150 Days
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HISTORY
Foreclosure Filings ~ Dec. 2017 607,901 ^ Foreclosure Filings ~ July 2017 499,166 v
Foreclosure Filings ~ For 2016 520,000
Note: The above figure does not include defaults, auctions and repositions as shown in the annual figures below.
Courtesy of RETV.News.News 12/27/2017
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Foreclosure Filings in 2016 - 933,045
Foreclosure Filings in 2015 - 1,100,000
Foreclosure Filings in 2014 - 1,100,000
Courtesy of Realty Track
SPECULATION JULY TO DECEMBER 2017:
Reprint from August 2017
Mortgage Interest Rates have not moved with the Interest Rate Hikes from the FED in recent months.
In order to income qualify for a average priced home of $263,800. you need 2 Americans of the Lower Income Class of $30,000. or less annual usually working 34 hours or less a week. This class is comprised of over 50%+ of American workers at this time. You must also meet the credit qualifying for the lower Upper Class individuals.
Or a top wage earner from the lower Upper Income Class that ears about $25.50 per hour for 40 hours a week, $53,040 annual.
Effectively, at this time the middle class appears to have been eliminated.
Home Values no longer appear to be depressed in the Real Estate Home Buyer market. But they are. The reason for the leveling of home prices throughout the USA is because the lower financial end of the market, homes selling under $250,000 are not selling in as high numbers of purchases for the last 30 to 60 days.
Homes over $250,000 and up have not been impacted by the FED Rate Hikes.
Partial Reprint of May 2017
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the two largest Mortgage Banks in the USA. Both are still under the US Government Conservator ship.
The result is, that mortgage interest rates are not in really moving with the market. They are moving under the control of the Government.
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Unchan
