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WALL STREET: .
THE GLOBAL MARKET
Wall Street praises out going FED Chair Yellen for leading a 44.00% volume increase since 2012 according to Wall Street.
GOVERNMENT:
FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD 11-15-2017
RATE HIKE POSITION ~ Unchanged
New FED Chair is Appointed as Janet Yellen the out going Chair, a Democratic Appointee
of the past Administration 2008-2016 is relieved.
A new FED Chair has been nominated.
Yellen Report Card:
American Family Household Debt Up 0.9% or in Dollars, American families "are in debt-$114 Billion Dollars in just the SECOND QUARTER of 2017." The -$114 Billion is only from April, May June 2017.
In addition, Wall Strret Financial Markets have been allowed to inflate their PE ratios and related Concepts which is supported by the FED as the FED abandons Main Street America.
America's economy is so depressed that Americans are having to borrower money to stay afloat.
Stock Market Up 2012-17 44.00% .
Real Estate Market Down (-0.51%) for 2017.
Retail Sales Down 0.24% for 2017.
Auto Sales Down Compared to 2016 for 2017.
Federal Reserve Board raises Prime Lending Rate results 12-16-2106.
Stock Market Crash 12-18-2016:
Wall Street Losses (- 1 Trillion 34 Billion Dollars)
Adjusts Prime Lending Rate Up 12-16-2016
Adjusts Prime Lending Rate Up 6-14-2017
Adjusts Prime Lending Rate Up 3-16-2017
Inflation is under the already to low FED Target Rate of 2.0% from 2012 to 2017. To low for economic growth in any of the Top 10 Economies in the World..
USA Foreclosures are Up 102,091 in the last 60 days. That's Up 17% in 60 days. Alarming news. America is heading back to the 2008-2016 Administration fall out from the Mortgage Crises another Government/Wall Street/Bank fraud scheme that went bad.
Janet Yellen, out going FED Chair and the majority of the FEDS Board of Governors thinks all is well with Americans and America.
The out going FED Chair and the remaining FED Board Of Governors in a majority, share the position that the USA Federal Reserve Board is separate in its decisions from the American Economy and therefore they do not have to share the same focus as the current Trump administration.
So, in the final analysis the FED has created a 3 Trillion 2 Hundred Billion of debt, holding American's ultimately responsible. The FED is going to "write down" which means whom ever received the 3.2 Trillion Dollars (special interest groups in whole or in part are not going to have to pay it back) and America and Americans are going to take the loss. The loss position was incurred by the 2008-2016 Administration.
Therefore, Poverty increases, Middle Class/Businesses goes further in debt and Upper Class/Corporations do not have to pay their debts from 2008-2016.
As of 11-15-2017
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Editors comment: Wall Street economics up 44% American citizen economy 0.
Wall Street did indicate that the lowering of the Unemployment Insurance Benefit Rate and Actual Unemployed in America was from the economy surviving the longest recession in history to date.
If the average American's income was up 44% from 2012 then Americans would feel the Chair had done a good job also.
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Reprint 9-28-2017
A FUTURE FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
Editors Viewpoint:
The new jobs being created are minimum wage jobs and not jobs that are viable to a growing economy.
The comparable difference is a 2 wage earner family at $8.00 per hour has to hold 4+ jobs (2.5 jobs each per wage earner at 30 hours per job or about 60-70 hours a week per wage earner x 2 wage earners) to meet the Gross Income, bottom line purchasing power of the average American financial requirement of $56,516.00. annual income.
Bottom line Purchasing Power is defined as being able to have a home, a car less than 5 years old and go to the store to buy more than just grocery items and a savings and retirement account.
Speculation: 160,000 new jobs at minimum wage of $8.00 per hour is financially equivalent to 64,000 jobs to meet the average viable consumer income at the bottom level.
Partial Reprint of May 3, 2017 editorial.
Higher interest rates is not the answer. Rates need to decrease under 4% to bring the market back to a growth level anytime soon. A possible scenario that may work would be back up to the growth level of the 3.50% 30 years rates as they were in mid 2016. Then look at easing them up annually at .25% if necessary, to maintain a healthy level of growth in the real estate market.
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REAL ESTATE FUTURES EXPANDED:
Prime Lending Rate Unchanged to date 11-15-2017:
4.25% up +0.75% from 12-2016 to 6-2017.
Speculation:
The first quarter of the a New USA 2017 Recession is in the books.
Washington is to busy with war and international efforts to recognize that the USA is down trending into a deeper recession.
Leading economic indicators that have always driven the Capitalistic USA economy are being ignored.
It appears that the American voter has been put on the back burner or is it the front burner by their elected officials.
Real Estate Sales are in negative figures with Retail Sales at -0% and 0 levels for 2017 and Interest Rates are going up quarterly as we approach the Holiday season.
See Figures" Daytona USA Financial News 9-28-2017
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USA ECONOMIC DATA AS OF
July 6, 2017
Year end Update pending.
July 6, 2017
The TRUMP Trek begins to Restore America.
Obama leaves a trail of Debt for Americans.
US NATIONAL DEBT: SINCE 1-20-2017
-$19 TRILLION 963 BILLION Down
180 DAYS Down -$17 BILLION
National Debt: Notes
In 2008 the National Debt as of January 9, 2008 was 9 Trillion 719 Billion. The National Debt has more than Doubled in the last 9 years. The National Debt is down in the last 180 days!
US GDP GROSS DOMESTIC
PRODUCT:
+$18 TRILLION 986 BILLION
Last 120 DAYS Up +76 BILLION
US DEBT TO GDP RATIO: -104.49%
Improved in last 120 days +1.88%
USA Debt exceeds USA Income.
Obama has increased the USA Dollar Supply
-963 Billion in 12/31/2016
-754 Billion 7/06/2017 Improved
209 Billion less dollars printed
in the last 180 days. IMPROVED 20% Lower
Cost to each Taxpayer 12/31/2017
an additional -$2,962.00 Annual.
Down to $2,310.00 7/06/2017 est.
With no apparent Benefit to the USA Taxpayer.
As of 1/31/2107
The above negative ratio indicates that
the USA is spending more money than produces. The Obama Administration and Congress is -$592 BILLION OVER THE 1 TRILLION 100 BILLION US 2016 BUDGET. Expressed as a percentage that is
53.81% ^ over budget. The Obama, US War chest is 548 Billion. The USA is not a healthy economy at this time. Americans Living in Poverty exceed 42 Million or 12.96%. Americans Living off Food Stamps is 41 Million. Both sets of number encompass different Americans with some duplication.
December 31, 2008 Comparison (year end)
US NATIONAL DEBT:
-10 TRILLION 447 BILLION
US GDP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT:
+13 TRILLION 976 BILLION
US DEBT TO GDP RATIO: +35.46%
The above positive GDP Ratio reflects a USA economy that has produced more than it has spent.
BOTTOM LINE: 1/31/2017
WORSE 2008 TO 12/31/2016 -41.83%
January 31,2017 -41.15%
THE USA ECONOMY IS OVER -40.00%
WORSE AS OF JANUARY 31, 2017 THAN
IT WAS IN DECEMBER 31, 2008. Improving
This does not include random Money printing.
AVERAGE INFLATION RATE
COMPARISON
YEARS INFLATION RATE AVERAGE
2017 Average. 2.21% Moderate Low
2009 TO 2016 1.4% Recession
2000 TO 2008 2.9% Moderate
America as a Democracy powered
by Capitalism should have a positive
"Growth At A Rate".
In order to do so a 2.5% Inflation Rate is Low and a 3.5% Inflation Rate is Moderate when compared to USA history and the current Global Economy. See World News page grid.
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EXIT BENCHMARK: 3/28/2017
USA Full Time Employment Needed:
1 Million 215 Thousand Americans
To get back to 2008 Actual Unemployed Level
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As of 1/10/2017: EXIT BENCHMARK
US Budget Deficit: -5 Trillion 645 Billion
Social Security: -15 Trillion 619 Billion
Medicare: -27 Trillion 720 Billion
Total 1/10/2017 -48 Trillion 984 Billion
Unfunded Liabilities -55 Trillion 777 Billion
National Debt: -19 Trillion 954 Billion
Federal Reserve Deficit: -3 Trillion 200 Billion
Liability Per USA Taxpayer
$875 Thousand 156 Dollars as of 1/10/2017
NEXT ANALYSIS 1/10/2018
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Not counted above:
US Government IOU's to the American Public +2 Trillion 600 Billion + Yield for all Monies Removed from the Social Security Trust Fund completed without voter approval.
US Government War Chest: +633 Billion
National Debt Annual Interest is: 225 Billion
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~~~~Forecast from 1/20/2017 to 7/8/2021~~~~
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION
OFFICIAL PROJECTIONS FOR "2021"
BASED ON FIRST 180 DAYS IN OFFICE
US Budget Deficit: -4 Trillion 984 Billion
Social Security: -22 Trillion 765 Billion
Medicare: -28 Trillion 311 Billion
Total 7/8/2021: -56 Trillion 060 Billion
Unfunded Liabilities: -49 Trillion 416 Billion
National Debt: -22 Trillion 734 Billion
~~2021 estimates are Subject to Revision~~
US Debt 2017: -67 Trillion 572 Billion
US Debt 1990: -13 Trillion 385 Billion
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REAL ESTATE:
Real Estate is approximately 50% of the USA economy. It not just the buying and selling of a home or commercial property. It's the building, nuts bolts, nails wood, plastic and all the other products that go into a home plus labor.
These products, if made in America, create good paying jobs and a strong contribution to the United Sates Gross Domestic Product and the ability to sell it in America.
Under the premise that the real estate market and new home and commercial markets are not operating at close to a 100% growth, recovery and sustained growth, one of the longest term recession the USA has experiences, 2008-2017 is not going to resolve itself.
The US Government and Federal Reserve has to not only support Wall Streets speculative activities but also support Main Street America growth activities as it should be. The focus on "America and Americans First", has been abandoned and needs of the middle class system must be reinstated to evolve from the current recession/depression non growth that the USA has been experiencing from 2008-2017.
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Trump Speculation per Thousand Dollars:
Trumps Initial Personal Income Plan Per from 1/20/2017:
$1000.00 Earnings
+280.00. Inflation at 3.5% over 8 years
$1280.00 Earnings in 8 years
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$500.00 Expenses for the $1000. Earnings
+140.00 Inflation at 3.5% over 8 years
$640.00 Expenses in 8 years
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+$13,440. End Game per $1000.00 of Income
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Benchmark for Real Estate Appreciation 7.5% Annual
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$100,000 Home Value 1/1/2017
$178,347 Estimated Value 1/1/2025
+$78,347 End Game Per $100,000
Real Estate Invested
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$100,000 Stock Market Investment
$152,308 Yield Estimated at 5.4% Annual
+$52,308 Per $100,000 Invested in the market.
or
+ $5,230 Per $10,000 Invested in the market.
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USA ANNUAL INFLATION RATE
Trump Target +2.5% to +3.5%
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2017 9 Month Average
for January through September 2017.
| 2017 |
+2.1% |
9 Month Average |
| 2016 |
+1.3% |
Recession +1.0 < 2.5% |
| 2015 |
+0.1% |
Depression 0.0% < 1.0% |
| 2014 |
+1.6% |
Recession +1.0% < 1.5% |
RETV.News
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USA Inflation Rate 2017 by the Month
| January |
2.5% |
February |
2.7% |
| March |
2.2% |
April |
2.4% |
| May |
1.9% |
June |
1.6% |
| July |
1.7% |
August |
1.9% |
| September |
2.2% |
October |
% |
| November |
% |
December |
% |
USA Average Year To Date 1.8%
Averages Courtesy of RETV.News |
Inflation Rates 2014-2015-2016-2017
Courtesy of
US Bureau Of Labor Statistics
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USA AVERAGE HOME
QUICK QUALIFIER INFO
11/1/2017
most recent releases
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Median Individual's Income
is 50% or more of wage earners.
11/1/2017
2017 - $30,508.
2000 - $29,231.
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Estimated Average Family Income
2016 - $56,516
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USA Home Median Price v Down
9/30/2017 $245,100
8/30/2017 $253,100
7/30/2017 $263,800
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Loan Amount $211,040
Income to Qualify with 20% Down $4709.66 Qualify with $56,516. Annual
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Loan Rate 4.25% 30 due in 30 Yrs.
Payment $1038.00 a Month
Taxes and Insurance $249.00
Other Debt $533.33
$1820.33 PITI and Debt per Month
Ratios
27.33 / 38.65
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The dollar difference in the loan payment amount for a 4.25% mortgage is $1038.00 vs. $894.00 or +$144. more per month when compared to a 3.375% interest rate from a year ago.
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In addition underwriting guidelines have tightened as rates are planned by the FED to go up to about 5% by 2017 year end and to 6% by year end 2018.
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Underwriting Variance is estimated
upward at +2%
Ratios
33.00 / 38.00
A Cash Down Payment of 20% is
estimated at $52,760. plus closing cost and cash reserves of approximately $12,640.00. Total cash required $63,200.00.
Note:
Average Family Savings of $8,581.00 v
indicates a potential financial ability deficiency to purchase any home over $75,000.
Average USA Family has exited the home ownership market.
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| Home Loan |
Point Cost Est |
Retail Rate |
| 30/30 - 417K |
0% |
4.18% ^ |
| 5/25 - 417K |
0% |
3.29% v |
| 15/15 - 417K |
0% |
3.48% ^ |
| 30/30 +418K |
0% |
4.11% ^
^
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| Point Cost Lowers Rate |
FNMA FHLMC |
Retail
Averaged Rate |
| Commercial 7 Yr. Fixed Due in 20 $6,000,000. |
0% |
5.79% |
| Prime Rate |
4.25%
3.50%
3.25%
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9/30/2017
10/1/2016
10/1/2015
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Fannie Mae
60 Day Rate Delivery 30/30 YR. |
3.51%
3.47%
3.48%
3.65%
2.94% |
11/1/2017
9/28/2017
8/02/2017
1/09/2017
7/27/2016 |
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USA HOME FORECLOSURES REPORTED
UP +101,080 IN 75 DAYS
Foreclosure Filings ~ Oct. 2017 600,246 ^ Foreclosure Filings ~ July 2017 499,166 v
Note: The above figure does not include defaults, auctions and repositions as shown in the annual figures below.
Courtesy of RETV.News.News 11/1/2017
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Foreclosure Filings in 2016 - 933,045
Foreclosure Filings in 2015 - 1,100,000
Foreclosure Filings in 2014 - 1,100,000
Courtesy of Realty Track
SPECULATION JULY TO DECEMBER 2017:
Reprint from August 2017
Mortgage Interest Rates have not moved with the Interest Rate Hikes from the FED in recent months.
In order to income qualify for a average priced home of $263,800. you need 2 Americans of the Lower Income Class of $30,000. or less annual usually working 34 hours or less a week. This class is comprised of over 50%+ of American workers at this time. You must also meet the credit qualifying for the lower Upper Class individuals.
Or a top wage earner from the lower Upper Income Class that ears about $25.50 per hour for 40 hours a week, $53,040 annual.
Effectively, at this time the middle class appears to have been eliminated.
Home Values no longer appear to be depressed in the Real Estate Home Buyer market. But they are. The reason for the leveling of home prices throughout the USA is because the lower financial end of the market, homes selling under $250,000 are not selling in as high numbers of purchases for the last 30 to 60 days.
Homes over $250,000 and up have not been impacted by the FED Rate Hikes.
Partial Reprint of May 2017
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the two largest Mortgage Banks in the USA. Both are still under the US Government Conservator ship.
The result is, that mortgage interest rates are not in really moving with the market. They are moving under the control of the Government.
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