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STOCK MARKET
Yields on the Stock Market are volatile at best. Currently the 52 week average is showing approximately 50% of the US Major Stock Indexes investments between the +0.01% and +9.00%.
PHLX Gold and Silver is up 86.3% and PHLX Semiconductor is up 26.6% on the 52 week average. Gold and Silver and High tech is always the cover the big business go to in a immediate financial recession for security.
The Wall Street Markets appear to be recovering slowly from the December 16, 2016 negative yield market impact of the Federal Reserve Board Interest Rate Hike.
THE GLOBAL MARKET
Negative interest rates dominate the World Markets in most areas. Bond Yields are low. Speculative markets are volatile.
GOVERNMENT
The Federal Federal Reserve Board will review the US Inflation Rate progress at the November 1-2, 2016 meeting.The basic review will be; does the US have the ability to to reach a 2.0% inflation mark before the December 15-16, 2016 FED meeting.
The September 30, 2016 Inflation Rate is reported at 1.46%. This Inflation Rate is in part due to Christmas Production Orders that could increase the Inflation Rate superficially.
History: 2015 In retrospect. The months of October 2015 the Inflation Rate increased +0.20% for October and 0.30% for November 2015. The Inflation Rate Average for 2015 is at a DEPRESSIONARY economic level just above 0.00% and in negative figures January to May and the month of September 2015. 2015 Inflation Rate Average 0.10%. Should be at a 2.50% to 3.50% level.
History: As of December 2014 the Inflation Rate was 1.62% then Decreased -0.43% in the first 5 months of 2015. The overall US economy is worse today than it was in 2014-2015.
The Near Future:
The Real Estate Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales is being stimulated by the First Time Home Buyer. These Home Sales have off set a Down Trending Housing Market for the July, August and September.
In all probability a upswing in Home Mortgage Rates and the Holiday Season may diffuse this First Time Home Buyer emerging market. This could result in a negative home sales for 2016.
STOCK MARKET
The Upside of the current Wall Street Financial Markets will in all probability go negative again with any FED Interest Rate Hike.
It's still a "Ride The Wave" for a potential positive Yield if if any the market for 2016. Be prepared to take an unexpected loss without notice.
A FUTURE FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
If the Stock Market and Real Estate Markets are allowed to recover with a "Growth at a Rate" with the primary focus on Americans, the USA, the USA economy will be on the mend.
A speculative recovery rate for America would be a median overall annual appreciation of 7.5% average, annually, for Real Estate. This would result in continuing Job Growth and most important Wage Growth for Americans and the USA.
The Stock and Bond Markets need to spur a 5.38% positive average of Investment In America and Tradings at all levels of investment to facilitate a rebounding America.
There is no quick fix at this time. Important issues needed to be resolved 4 years ago.
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USA ECONOMIC DATA AS OF
October 28, 2016
October 28, 2016
US NATIONAL DEBT:
-$19 TRILLION 764 BILLION
MONEY PRINTING
NEW MONEY IN CIRCULATION
1/1/2016 TO 10/28/2016 $913 BILLION
1/1/2016 TO 9/30/2016 $908 BILLION
1/1/2016 TO 8/30/2016 $858 BILLION
August to October UP $55 BILLION
US GDP GROSS DOMESTIC
PRODUCT:
+$18 TRILLION 558 BILLION
US DEBT TO GDP RATIO: -106.49%
Up in 30 days from-105.75%
The above negative ratio indicates that
the USA is spending more money than produces. The National Debt has increased 357 Billion in 30 days. The GDP has only increased 209 Billion in 30 days.
MONEY PRINTING IS NOT INCLUDED ABOVE OF ALMOST
1 TRILLION USA DOLLARS IN JUST 2016.
USA is not a healthy economy at this time.
December 31, 2008
US NATIONAL DEBT:
-10 TRILLION 447 BILLION
US GDP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT:
+13 TRILLION 976 BILLION
US DEBT TO GDP RATIO: +35.46%
The above positive GDP Ratio reflects a USA economy that has produced more than it has spent.
BOTTOM LINE: 10/28/2016
WORSE 2008 TO 2016 -41.95%
THE USA ECONOMY IS - 42%
WORSE: AS OF OCTOBER 28, 2016 THAN
IT WAS IN DECEMBER 31, 2008.
AVERAGE INFLATION RATE
COMPARISON
YEARS INFLATION RATE AVERAGE
2000 TO 2008 2.9% Moderate
2009 TO 2016 (Sept) 1.45% Recessionary
America as a Democracy powered
by Capitalism should have a positive
"Growth At A Rate". In order to do so a +2.5% Inflation Rate is Low and a +3.5% Inflation Rate is Moderate a 4.5% Inflation Rate is High, when compared to USA history and the current Global Economy.
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REAL ESTATE MARKET
The First Time Home Buyers market carries Existing Home Sales in August and September to save the Real Estate Market from moving dramatically into another down trend. This was fueled by lower interest rates under 3.5% in most cases.
The result was that First Time Home Buyers contributed +34% to the Existing Home Sale market. Highest level in over 4 years!
August 2016 was also a good month for the emerging First Time Home Buyer.
Interest Rates have a significant bearing on keeping the First Time Buyer in the market. It's the difference between qualifying and not qualifying for their home purchase.
Will this emergence of the younger generation buying homes continue? The reality is the current Democratic Administration does not appear supportive of any rebound for America, Americans and the American Dream.
National Home Sales are Down an Average of -0.23% for 2016
ANALYSIS
WHAT'S THE PROBLEM WITH
REAL ESTATE GROWTH?
| FUTURE INCOME |
JOB STABILITY |
USA ANNUAL INFLATION RATE
9/30/2016 + 1.46%
2015 + 0.12%
2014 + 1.62%
2013 + 1.47%
Inflation Rates 2013-2014-2015
Courtesy of
US Bureau Of Labor Statistics
2016 is a 9 Month Average
from January through September.
The Benchmark for a Growing Economy in America is Average Inflation Rate of +3.5%.
The 2016 Annual Projection for the USA Inflation Rate is +1.1%.
(with no standing Inventory).
Courtesy of RETV.News
REAL ESTATE FUTURES
The Federal Reserve Board meeting on November 1- 2, 2016 will be reported on the Daytona USA World News page.
Memo's from the September 21-22, 2016
US Federal Reserve Board Meeting
FED-FOMC Press Release Excerpt ~ The Federal Open Market Committee reaffirmed its "Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy...
Following further Committee discussion regarding the most appropriate way to express this clarification, the statement has been amended to indicate that the "Committee would be concerned if inflation were running persistently above or below" its 2 percent objective.
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REPORT ELECTION DAY 2016
Democratic Administration Economic Data
10-29-2008 THROUGH 10-29- 2016
America and Americans
Black=Improved Red=Worse
10/29/2008 Actual Unemployment 10/29/2016
13,556,452 15,496,782
Up 1 Million 940 Thousand
10-29-2008 Living In Poverty 10-29-2016
39,378,743 43,114,879
Up 3 Million 736 Thousand
10-29-2008 Food Stamp Recipient
10-29-2016
32,602,488 42,839,722
Up 10 Million 237 Thousand
Is this an improving American Economy?
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USA AVERAGE HOME
QUICK QUALIFIER INFO
10/28/2016
Median Individual's Income
2016 - $30,503.
2000 - $28,408.
Estimated Average Family Income
2016 - $52,000
Home Average Price
9/2016 - $242,100.
Loan Amount: $193,680
Income to Qualify with 20% Down $4333.33 Month (or $52,000. Annual)
Loan Rate 3.5% 30 due in 30 Yrs.
Payment $870. a Month
Taxes and Insurance $249.00
Other Debt $533.33
$1652.33 PITI and Debt per Month
Qualifying Ratios for Above
25.8% Housing Debt
38.1% Overall Debt
Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Acceptable Ratios
33% / 38%
Underwriting Variance is estimated
upward at +2%
Cash Down Payment required is
estimated at $48,420. plus closing cost and cash reserves.
Note:
Red indicates a Potential Deficiency
Average Family Savings $9,457.00
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SPECULATION:
Election Day November 8, 2016:
Hillary Clinton Position:
The coming election will determine if America will become a predominately and continuing Democratic Socialist America relying on a War Zone and a Welfare like economy where the Middle Class American becomes non existent, in a World Economy.
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The Democratic Election Question:
Do Americans want to Submit to the Government they Elect to a ongoing War Zone in both the International World and in America?
Do Americans want Poverty of the Middle Class prevail in America because businesses and jobs are being moved to other Countries?
This has been a occurring since 1994 also known as Clinton-economics.
|
| Home Loan |
Wholesale |
Retail Rate |
| 30/30 -417K |
3.71% |
3.875% |
| 5/25 -417K |
2.93% |
3.25% |
| 15/15 -417K |
3.01% |
3.375% |
| 30/30 +418K |
3.71% |
3.875% |
| Point Cost |
0%
FNMA FHLMC |
Unknown |
| Commercial 10 Yr. Fixed Due in 20 $6,000,000. |
0 Cost |
5.875% |
| Prime Rate |
3.50% |
unchanged |
Fannie Mae
60 Day Delivery 30/30 YR. |
3.04%
2.94% |
10/27/2016
7/27/2016 |
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The Who of Trickle Down Economics:
This system prevailed from 1980 to 1992 also known as Regan-economics or Trickle Down Economics.
The name came from the result that the Government provided systems within the USA Economy so the the American People would prosper, Corporate America moved forward and prospered with a small Government focused at benefiting Americans at Home first.
As History notes, this USA Capitalist economy maintained and moved the USA forward at home, abroad without a war effort.
Ronald Regan is the most popular present day President who is in the same area as JFK, FDR, Lincoln and George Washington and their America the Beautiful intentions.
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SPECULATION:
Election Day November 8, 2016:
Donald Trump Position:
If the Republican Candidate prevails he pronounces America will once again be America as we have known it and Americans will be powered by a Capitalist System, that affords working Americans the option to achieve the American Dream in both business and lifestyle.
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The Republican Election Question:
Do Americans want to be Equals again to the Government they Elect and once again become the Economic Leader Globally.
Do Americans support the Entrepreneurial spirit and the sky is the limit for anyone who dares to be that achiever.
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HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF
Foreclosure Filings
Foreclosure Filings in 2016 - 523,341
Foreclosure Filings in 2015 - 1,100,000
Foreclosure Filings in 2014 - 1,100,000
The current 2016 calculation is for
January to October 28, 2016.
This figure may be subject to government manipulation due to an election year. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac the two largest Mortgage Banks in the USA have been and currently are under Government Conservator-ship since August 2008.
Ben Bernanke the then FED Chair indicated publicly on September 15, 2009," A year after last fall's financial collapse, the country's worst recession since the Great Depression is "very likely over," Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said today.
Courtesy of ABC News
Now it's 7 years later. Why hasn't Fannie and Freddie been restored to the public sector?
Compare
Foreclosure Filings in 2004 - 640,000
Courtesy RETV.News.
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RETV.News Viewpoint
________________________________
SPECULATION:
Election Day November 8, 2016:
The Choices:
Editorial ~ RETV.News ~ Reporter
Give me America and the American way for the future. A Growing Economy, Freedom to Live Life your way and Religious Freedom without sanctions.
This is the basis of America and always has been the foundation of Americans.
And of course, a safe environment for one and all, by, for and of the American people.
______________________________________
The Election Question:
The primary reasons for the Revolution, the USA Constitution and Bill of Rights is for the Peoples Freedom from Government dominance and constant control.
Do Americans want to give up their inherited freedoms today for more US Government control, a government sponsored inreasing War effort abroad, resulting in fear and Poverty at home?
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Is it,
Trump
We The People or
Clinton
We The US Government
?
That's what we will decide on Tuesday.
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