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Wall Street: STOCK MARKET
Wall Street is quick to claim any positive yield for 2016. The Big Apple that houses Americas largest financial firms has yet to give an indication of market losses. Lets move on.
Daytona had predicted a 4.44% average yield for the Stock and Bond Market.
The average Money Market yield today is approximately 0.31% to 0.50%, with 5 Year CD Rates from 1.22% to 2.68% if you really research the market.
By appearance, at this time, 1/31/2017, Mortgage Interest Rates are moving with the 10 year Treasury index.
THE GLOBAL MARKET
The Global market is volatile and flat. High Yield Bonds are at about 4.5%. They are not available for everyone and there is risk. Standard Euro Bond rates of return are at about 1.0%to 2.0%.
GOVERNMENT
The Federal Reserve Board Democratic Appointee Janet Yellen, Chair has continued to posture the FED in a plundering position atop America and the American people.
If the FEDs actions do not align with President Trumps plan then there will be static growth initially, dispite Trumps thrust forward, that will result in driving consumer confidence down.
This would not be beneficial to America's Productivity Growth and Job Growth, as the USA economy would continue to falter from the past administration.
A FUTURE FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
Editors Viewpoint:
The FED needs to step back and take a look at the future of America and the American People at this time.
The distinct difference being that in the last 8 years the FED has been moving within a Socialist perspective.
Today that has changed back to a Capitalist perspective. The current USA Depressionary economy does not need to be micro managed until it reaches a 3.0% to 3.5% Inflation Rate.
Seeminglyin addition, in Real Estate, without a First Time Home Buyer, business, companies and families are unable to grow at a rate in America.
With the First time Home Buyer in the equation Americans have the future ability to move up.
The FED crushed this emerging growth spurt by the First Time Home Buyer with Interest Rate Hikes in the last quarter of 2016.
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REAL ESTATE FUTURES
Prime Lending Rates:
America is an unstable economy at this time. This is due to the prior administration that had candidly attempted to transition America and Americans from a Capitalist Society into acute Socialism, driven by a war machine and controlling every aspect of the USA to their political and financial benefit.
In an ideal USA economic world, Homes should appreciate approximately 7.5% annually or as otherwise explained between 5% and 10% average Nationally. Within those guidelines you will always have Hot Spots that may reach 15% and Soft Spots at 0%.
A consistant 2.0% to 5.0% Average Annual Growth of Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales will spur USA productivity and in return, pay or finance, Internal Growth, of and for, the USA.
Real Estate is approximately 50% of the USA economy and is on the top of the list of benefiting all Americans, Companies and Wall Street as a secure and solid investment.
Interest Rates, at this time, can be lower because of low or negative interest rates that currently surround much of the Global Economy's and the need for low cost investment capital for the USA company's. Growth at a Rate is a good approach.
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USA ECONOMIC DATA AS OF
January 31, 2017
January 31, 2017
The TRUMP Trek begins to Restore America.
Obama leaves a trail of Debt for Americans.
US NATIONAL DEBT:
-$19 TRILLION 996 BILLION
30 DAYS UP -$42 BILLION
National Debt: Notes
In 2008 the National Debt as of January 9, 2008 was 9 Trillion 719 Billion. The National Debt has more than Doubled in the last 9 years.
US GDP GROSS DOMESTIC
PRODUCT:
+$18 TRILLION 779 BILLION
30 DAYS UP +$21 BILLION
Up only 50% of the National Debt Negative
US DEBT TO GDP RATIO: -105.69%
USA Debt exceeds USA Income.
Obama has increased the USA Dollar Supply
-963 Billion in 12/31/2016
-947 Billion 1/31/2017
-14 Billion 1/31/2017 "Down is +"
Cost to each Taxpayer 12/31/2017
an additional -$2,962.00 Annual.
Down to -$2,917.00 1/31/2017
With no apparent Benefit to the USA Taxpayer.
The above negative ratio indicates that
the USA is spending more money than produces. The Obama Administration and Congress is -$590 BILLION OVER THE 1 TRILLION 100 BILLION US 2016 BUDGET. Expressed as a percentage that is 53.6% over budget. The Obama, US War chest is 548 Billion. The USA is not a healthy economy at this time. Americans Living in Poverty exceed 42 Million or 12.96%. Americans Living off Food Stamps is also over 42 Million. Both sets of number encompass different Americans with some duplication.
December 31, 2008 Comparison (year end)
US NATIONAL DEBT:
-10 TRILLION 447 BILLION
US GDP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT:
+13 TRILLION 976 BILLION
US DEBT TO GDP RATIO: +35.46%
The above positive GDP Ratio reflects a USA economy that has produced more than it has spent.
BOTTOM LINE: 1/31/2017
WORSE 2008 TO 12/31/2016 -41.83%
January 31,2017 -41.15%
THE USA ECONOMY IS OVER -40.00%
WORSE AS OF JANUARY 31, 2017 THAN
IT WAS IN DECEMBER 31, 2008. Improving
This does not include random Money printing.
AVERAGE INFLATION RATE
COMPARISON
YEARS INFLATION RATE AVERAGE
2000 TO 2008 2.9% Moderate
2009 TO 2016 (Dec) 1.3% Recession
America as a Democracy powered
by Capitalism should have a positive
"Growth At A Rate".
In order to do so a 2.5% Inflation Rate is Low and a 3.5% Inflation Rate is Moderate when compared to USA history and the current Global Economy. See World News page grid.
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USA Full Time Employment Needed:
1 Million 214 Thousand Americans
To get back to 2008 Actual Unemployed Level
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US Budget Deficit: -5 Trillion 645 Billion
Social Security: -15 Trillion 619 Billion
Medicare: -27 Trillion 720 Billion
Additional Unfunded Liabilities+ National Debt
-55 Trillion 777 Billion
Liability Per USA Taxpayer
$875 Thousand 156 Dollars as of 1/10/2017
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USA FIRST TIME HOME BUYER CRUSHED
USA Home Sales decrease again for the Third straight month in December -2.8%.
The First Time Home Buyer boosted the Nationwide Real Estate Home Purchase market +3.2% in September. This was answered by a Fannie Mae Freddie Mac +0.25% Rate Hike on Home Loans.
In October the USA Existing Home Sales went down to +2.0% as First time Home Buyers stepped back and Mortgage Interest Rates increased another +0.25%.
In November Home Sales went down again to +0.7% as Home Loan Rates rose an additional +0.25%.
Finally Home Sales and Home Prices plummeted -2.8% from the unwarranted Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FED Rate Hikes in the last quarter of 2016.
Home ownership "The American Dream" offers the largest asset any American or American Family has to call their own.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the two largest USA Mortgage Banks and have been under Government Conservator ship since August 2008.
The Mortgage Crisis and Great Recession was announced to be over September 2009, by the then FED Chief Bernanke. Apparently he was mistaken.
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Trump Speculation:
Trumps Initial Plan:
$1000.00 Earnings
+280.00. Inflation at 3.5% over 8 years
$1280.00 Earnings in 8 years
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$500.00 Expenses for the $1000. Earnings
+140.00 Inflation at 3.5% over 8 years
$640.00 Expenses in 8 years
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+$13,440. End Game per $1000.00 of Income
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Benchmark for Real Estate Appreciation 7.5% Annual
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$100,000 Home Value 1/1/2017
$178,347 Estimated Value 1/1/2025
+$78,347 End Game Per $100,000
Real Estate Invested
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$100,000 Stock Market Investment
$152,308 Yield Estimated at 5.4% Annual
+$52,308 Per $100,000 Invested in the Mkt.
or
+ $5,230 Per $10,000 Invested in the Mkt.
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USA ANNUAL INFLATION RATE
Trump Target 2.5% to 3.5%
| 2017 |
|
Unavailable |
| 2016 |
+1.3% |
Recession |
| 2015 |
+0.1% |
Depression |
| 2014 |
+1.6% |
Low |
2016 is the initial 12 Month Average
from January through December.
Courtesy of RETV.News
Inflation Rates 2014-2015
Courtesy of
US Bureau Of Labor Statistics
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USA AVERAGE HOME
QUICK QUALIFIER INFO
1/31/2017
Median Individual's Income
2017 - $30,062.
2000 - $28,408.
Estimated Average Family Income
2016 - $52,000
USA Home Median Price
12/31/2016- $232,200
Loan Amount $185,760
Income to Qualify with 20% Down $4333.33 Month (or $52,000. Annual)
Loan Rate 4.375% 30 due in 30 Yrs.
Payment $927.00 a Month
Taxes and Insurance $249.00
Other Debt $533.33
$1706.33 PITI and Debt per Month
Ratios
27.13 / 39.46
The reason the model above still qualifies with the higher interest rate of +0.875% is because home prices have decreased about -$13,800 since July 2016
Underwriting Variance is estimated
upward at +2%
Ratios
33 / 38
Cash Down Payment required is
estimated at $46,440. plus closing cost and cash reserves.
Note:
Red indicates a Potential Deficiency
Average Family Savings $10,140.00
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| Home Loan |
Wholesale |
Retail Rate |
| 30/30 -417K |
% |
4.35% |
| 5/25 -417K |
% |
3.41% |
| 15/15 -417K |
% |
3.50% |
| 30/30 +418K |
% |
4.35% |
| Point Cost |
0%
FNMA FHLMC |
Unknown |
| Commercial 10 Yr. Fixed Due in 20 $6,000,000. |
0 Pt.Cost |
5.75% |
| Prime Rate |
3.75% |
UP +.25 |
Fannie Mae
60 Day Delivery 30/30 YR. |
3.75%
3.65%
2.94% |
1/27/2017
1/09/2017
7/27/2016 |
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USA HOME FORECLOSURES REPORTED
Foreclosure Filings in 2016 - 515,457
Courtesy of RETVNews
Foreclosure Filings in 2015 - 1,100,000
Foreclosure Filings in 2014 - 1,100,000
Courtesy of Realty Track
SPECULATION:
January 31, 2017
On the premise that the FED continues to raise the Prime Lending Rate and Mortgage Interest Rates separately or concurrently Americans can expect the Home Prices will continue to be driven down and Home Sales will slow, as happened in the 4th quarter of 2016.
The Inflation Rate for December 2016 was 2.1%, primarily due to increased production of Christmas orders. The Average Inflation Rate for October, November and December 2016 is 1.9%.
The 2016 Average Inflation Rate for the USA from January to December year end is 1.3%. This is only 3/10% above a Depression Inflation Rate level for a Top Ten Country.
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