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STOCK MARKET SCORE BOARD
The negative response by Wall Street to the Feds decision to raise the Prime Lending Rates over Fiscal 2016 continues to Investor dismay. Wall Street 1.5 Trillion Dollars, Investors 0.
THE MARKET
The Stock market is downtrending and is a volatile investment risk. After a couple weeks of an improving market the bottom fell out again with a decrease in the overall performance of about -1% as of
March 28, 2016.
GOVERNMENT
The Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen, a Democratic Apointee, continues on the path of raising interest rates in America.
Janet Yellens reasoning is that the Inflation Rate is easing up for the current month to 2.0%. This is still under the 3.5% Benchmark Rate needed for US Production and Growth.
As for this 2.0 expected US Inflation Rate, what may not being considered, is the fact that over 30% of US Production in 2015 remained inventory. This would adjust any current inflation rate approximately -0.5%.
This may be the reason why the US inflation Rate was 0.12 in December 2015. The current Inflation Rate is similar to 2008 and 2009.
The IR eased up slighty to 1.4% in January and back down to 1.0% level in February. Goods in warehouse inventory were being sold at wholesale prices or deeper discounted prices on the Retail market to move the products.
NATIONAL DEBT
The National Debt has skyrocketed from 2008 to 2016. It took over 50 years to accumulate a 9 Trillion Dollar National Debt and the current administration has DOUBLED that in just 7 years to over 19 Trillion Dollars. This debt is a USA Taxpayer liability.
USA's FUTURE FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
Unchanged from 2008 / Down Trending
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| Wall Street Stock Market |
 |
| Wall Street Investors |
| |
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ANALYSIS JOBS
The current administration reports that new jobs that are being created. What they are not reporting is that old jobs that are being lost are approximately same number or more.
The only difference is the old jobs were at a good cost of living wage in a capitalist system.
The new jobs are at minimum wages.
By appearance, the result of the current administrations socialistic approach to employment may be, more controls over the USA workforce for US Debt purposes.
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Actual Unemployed Unchanged/Worse
US Bureau Of Labor Statistics
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15,229,724 (15 Million)
23,099,060 (23 Million)
13,435,745 (13 Million)
14,203,843 (13 Million)
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3-28-2016
3-28-2012
3-28-2008
3-28-2004
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Actual Unemployment is Up as of today.
REAL ESTATE FUTURES
Interest rates are not being driven by the down trending USA economy. In a normal economy in America when you have a Financial Crisis interest rates move up untill the crisis is resolved.
It may be a good time to make your real estate purchase or close on your refinance transaction. Rates change without notice.
COMMENTARY
Due to the US Government Conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac the two largest mortgage Banks in the USA have lowered Mortgage Rates since the Stock Market crash of 12/18/2015.
The Stock Markets instant reduction of Volume and Capital occurred after the Fed raised the Prime Lending Rate to 3.50%. Another Interest Rate Hike is still on the table for the mid April Federal Reserve Board meeting.
Mortgage Rates are currently at historic lows.
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| RED = WORSE |
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US BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
| Unemployment |
2008 |
4.9% |
2016 |
4.9% |
| Consumer Price Index |
2008 |
+0.2 |
2016 |
-0.2 |
| Average Hourly Earn |
2008 |
+0.7 |
2016 |
-0.3 |
| Productivity Qtr4 |
2008 |
- 2.5 |
2016 |
-2.2 |
| Import Price Index Feb |
2008 |
+0.2 |
2016 |
-0.3 |
| Export Price Index Feb |
2008 |
-0.3 |
2016 |
-0.4 |
Note: Red indicates Deflation As of 3-28-2016
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USA Foreclosures
As of 3-28-2016 are 552,017.
The Foreclosure Monthly Average since March 2015 to March 2016 is at the current rate of 52,000 Monthly.
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| Home Loan |
Wholesale |
Retail Rate |
| 30/30 -417K |
3.71 % ^ |
4.25 % ^ |
| 5/25 -417K |
2.89 % ^ |
3.375% ^ |
| 15/15 -417K |
2.96 % v |
3.50 % ^ |
| 30/30 +418K |
3.85 % v |
4.25 % v |
| Commercial |
0 Points ^ |
Retail |
| 7/20 Yr. to 6M |
|
5.625% v |
| Prime Rate |
3.50 % |
unchanged |
| 0 Point Rates |
Actual |
Estimated |
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THE USA ECONOMY
Speculation:
The USA Economic picture is dismal at best. The Fed is basing its Interest Rate Hike Program on the Employment figures of 4.9%. The Unemployment Insurance Benefit Rate.
Official Unemployed Insurance Benefit Rate
3-28-2016 ~ 7,728,437 ( 8 Million)
3-28-2012 ~12,844,508 (13 Million)
3-28-2008 ~ 8,492, 900 ( 8 Million)
3-28-2004 ~ 8.312.838 ( 8 Million)
The current Democratic Administration has only improved the USA
Unemployment figures based on their own negative performance figures.
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USA Inflation Rate February 1929 0.0%
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USA Inflation Rate February 29, 2009 +0.2%
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USA Inflation Rate February 29, 2016 +1.0%
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