|
THE WALL STREET MARKET: 1-3 2019
Wall Street is in a down market that will emerge in due time. The market has has changed since 2016. We have more fluctuations and less span of time between them. This is due to investing in the unstable Euro market. With high profits come high losses.
Bond Yield 2.42%
Bank Interest Rate 2.15% Best
1 Yr. CD Rate 2.35% to 2.70%
$5,000.00 to $100,000.00
Savings Rates 1.00% Best
Note: Savings rates on CD have risen. There is a substantial penalty for early withdrawal.
e-RETV News in Brief:
Research and Development
_______________________________________
FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD 1-3-2019
Overall USA Economy continues to downtrend. Real Estate Home Sales are the most affected for 2018. Nationwide Home Sales were down 6 months in a row emerging sightly in October 2018 at 1.4% and November at 1.6%.
With rising interest rates, it is almost a givien that we will not see a 7.5% benchmark growth rate for 2019.
RETV.News 1-3-2019
_______________________________________
EDITORIAL VIEWPOINT:
The USA economy grew at 3.5% from July thru September 2018. The 2nd quarter of 2018 showed a growth rate of 4.2%.
Growth American hasn't seen for almost 10 years.
RETV.News 1-03-2019
_______________________________________
REAL ESTATE 2-1-2019
USA HOME SALES Down in 2018
Down 6.4% in December 2018
MEDIAN PRICE -Month to Month
12-30-2018 $253,600
11-30-2018 $257,700
10-30-2018 $255,400 ( from a year ago)
9-30-2018 $258.100
8-31-2018 $264,800
7-31-2018 $269,600
6-31-2018 $276,900
5-31-2018 $264,800
4-30-2018 $257,490 revised
3-15-2018 $240,000
2/13/2017 $246,800
11/30/2017 $248,000
9/30/2017 $245,100
8/30/2017 $253,100
7/30/2017 $263,800
_______________________________________
Editor's Viewpoint: 2019
Real Estate which is the average Americans financial growth model in all probability will be underwater if the FED keeps increasing interest rates.
_______________________________________
Editorial Speculation: Janaury 3, 2019
The economy is not growing as quickly as the FED is increasing interest rates. The middle class American will not be able to participate in the growth of the economy as long as this is the case.
_______________________________________
Semi Annual Archive from May 2018 article:
Next update May 2019.
Individual Workers Averaged Income Annual
USA Median Income:
Source: US Census Bureau
2018 - $31,364 (Up +$0.72 cents a day)
2016 - $31,099
2 Year Wage increase $ 265.00
CPI
2017 - 2.0%
2016 - 1.3%
2 Year Price increase $1,035.01
( Up -$2.83 cents a day)
Shortfall on income (- $ 770.01 Annual)
Prices increased more than income.
______________________________________
Just The Facts: Archive Date
FULL TIME WORK DEFINITION CHANGED
JANUARY 8, 2015
Changing the ACA's Definition of Full-Time Work. ... Employers may also opt to avoid the mandate by reducing hours and substituting part-time workers for full-time workers. However, contrary to the conventional 40 hour definition of full-time work, the law defines full-time employment as working at least 30 hours per week.Jan 8, 2015
JUST THE FACTS ~ WAGES SHOULD BE CALCULATED BASED ON A 35 HOUR WEEK RATHER THAN 40 HOURS.
_______________________________________
PART TIME WORK DEFINITION
A part-time contract is a form of employment that carries fewer hours per week than a full-time job. They work in shifts. The shifts are often rotational. Workers are considered to be part-time if they commonly work "1 hour" or fewer than 30 hours per week.
_______________________________________
|
USA ECONOMIC NEWS as of
April 12, 2018
REAL TIME ANALYSIS
Annual Report and Comparison
April 4, 2017
The TRUMP Trek begins to Restore America.
Obama leaves a trail of Debt for Americans.
US NATIONAL DEBT: As Of: 4-4-2018
-$21 TRILLION 115 BILLION Up from
-$19 TRILLION 963 BILLION 1/20/17
National Debt: Notes
In 2008 the National Debt as of January 9, 2008, was 9 Trillion 719 Billion. The National Debt has more than Doubled in the last nine years. -1 Trillion went to the Mortgage Crisis 2008-2009 from the G.W. Bush Administration. An additional 9 Trillion was added to the US National Debt by the Obama Administration. From 2009-2016 the National Debt more than doubled the amount that has been accruing since the 1960's
US GDP GROSS DOMESTIC
PRODUCT: Is Up +879 BILLION to
+$19 TRILLION 865 BILLION
FROM
+$18 TRILLION 986 BILLION
SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF CURRENT AND POTENTIAL GROWTH IF NOT CHOKED OFF
4/2018
US DEBT TO GDP RATIO: (-106.29) ^
Up From 4/2017 -104.49%
Worse in last 12 Months -1.88% ^
This is due to USA Debt exceeds USA Gross Domestic Product. Current Debt is increasing more than the Gross Domestic Product increase year to date.
Obama has increased the USA Dollar Supply
-963 Billion in 12/31/2016
-536 Billion 4/4/2018 Improved
427 Billion fewer dollars printed compared to 12/31/2016 IMPROVED 55%. Result a Lowered USA Debt and public tax burden to date.
Cost to each Taxpayer 12/31/2017
an additional -$2,962.00 Annual.
Down to -$1,629.00 4/4/2018 est.
With no apparent Benefit to the USA Taxpayer.
As of 4/4/2018 - - - - -
The above negative ratio indicates that the USA is spending more money than produces.
In 2018 Congress and President Trump passed 1 Trillion 300 Billion USA Budget.
This is the first realistic US Government increase since 9/11.
Budget Deficit listed below are for each year shown with a similar amount increasing annually for years not shown. Milestones.
Year Deficit Amount
2002 - -$158 Billion - G.W. Bush
2008 - -$459 Billion - G.W. Bush
2012 - -$1 Trillion 87 Billion - Obama
2016 - -$767 Billion - Obama
2017 - -$812 Billion - Obama >Trump
2018 est -$633 Billion - Trump
The increasing Debt of the war effort is approaching 1 Trillion Dollars Annually.
This amount is approximately the same amount that is being added to our National Debt annually. -$1 Trillion Dollars of Taxpayer Liability proposed for 2019.
Approximately -$1 Trillion Dollars of War Debt over the existing 1 Trillion 200 Billion 2018 Budget.
Without the expanding World War effort the USA in a very stretched sense would be within the proposed budget set for 2018.
The USA War Chest is approaching $700 Billion. This is more than 10x that of any other Country in the World.
In comparison, FDR Debt of World War II was -$21 Billion Dollars in 1942 and -$55 Billion in 1943 estimated Annual.
2016:
The Obama Administration and Congress is -$592 BILLION OVER THE 1 TRILLION 100 BILLION US 2016 BUDGET. Expressed as a percentage that is 53.81% ^ over budget. The Obama, US War chest is 548 Billion. The USA is not a healthy economy at this time.
AAmericans Living in Poverty exceed 42 Million or 12.96% 1/2017. This number has improved as of 4/2018 to just over 39 Million. 2017: Americans Living off Food Stamps is 41 Million1/2017. 4/2018: This number has improved to just under 41 Million. Both sets of numbers encompass different Americans with some duplication.
December 31, 2008, Comparison (year-end)
US NATIONAL DEBT:
-10 TRILLION 447 BILLION
US GDP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT:
+13 TRILLION 976 BILLION
US DEBT TO GDP RATIO: +35.46%
The above positive GDP Ratio reflects a USA economy that has produced more than it has spent.
BOTTOM LINE: 1/31/2017
WORSE 2008 TO 12/31/2016 -41.83%
January 31, 2017 -41.15%
THE USA ECONOMY IS OVER -40.00%
WORSE AS OF JANUARY 31, 2017 THAN
IT WAS IN DECEMBER 31, 2008. Improving
This does not include random Money printing.
AVERAGE INFLATION RATE
COMPARISON
YEARS INFLATION RATE AVERAGE
2017 TO 2018 1.8% Moderate Low
2009 TO 2016 1.4% Recession
2000 TO 2008 2.9% Moderate
America as a Democracy powered by Capitalism should have a positive "Growth at a Rate." This includes Real Estate and Retail Sales as a Country.
In order to do so a 2.5% Inflation Rate is Low and a 3.5% Inflation Rate is Moderate High when compared to USA history and the current Global Economy.
See World News page grid.
_______________________________________
EXIT BENCHMARK: 3/28/2017
USA Full Time Employment Needed:
1 Million 215 Thousand Americans
To get back to 2008 Actual Unemployed Level
_______________________________________
USA Overall Debt
As of 1/10/2017: Obama EXIT BENCHMARK
As of 4/04/2018: Trump Current Performance
US Budget Deficit: -$5 Trillion 645 Billion
US Budget Deficit: -$6 Trillion 001 Billion
Social Security: -$15 Trillion 619 Billion
Social Security: -$16 Trillion 877 Billion
Medicare: -$27 Trillion 720 Billion
Medicare: -$27 Trillion 879 Billion
Total 1/10/2017: -$48 Trillion 984 Billion
Total 4/04/2018: - $50 Trillion 757 Billion
_______________________________________
USA Overall Debt Continued:
Total 1/10/2017:
Total 4/12/2018:
Unfunded Liabilities : -$55 Trillion 777 Billion
Unfunded Liabilities: -$62 Trillion 008 Billion
National Debt: -$19 Trillion 954 Billion
National Debt: -$21 Trillion 931 Billion
Federal Reserve Deficit -$3 Trillion 200 Billion
Federal Reserve Deficit -$3 Trillion 200 Billion
Liability Per USA Taxpayer
$875 Thousand 156 Dollars as of 1/10/2017
$929 Thousand 559 Dollars as of 4/12/2018
Real time analysis: 4/2018
Trump FUTURE PROJECTION: 2021
_______________________________________
Not counted above:
US Government IOU's to the American Public +2 Trillion 600 Billion + Yield for all Monies Removed from the Social Security Trust Fund completed without voter approval.
US Government War Chest: +$633 Billion
National Debt Annual Interest: +$225 Billion
USA Budget 2018 $1 Trillion 300 Billion
_______________________________________
4/4/2018
TODAY
ACTUAL
US Budget Deficit: -$6 Trillion 001 Billion
Social Security: -$16 Trillion 879 Billion
Medicare: -$27 Trillion 879 Billion
Additional Unfunded Liabilities+ National Debt -$61 Trillion 917 Billion
Liability Per USA Taxpayer
$875 Thousand 156 Dollars as of 1/10/2017
$929 Thousand 014 Dollars as of 4/04/2018
_______________________________________
Editor Noted: War Funding is approximately -$633 Billion going up to 1 Trillion annually.
In 2015 it was $736 and 2016 $767 Billion.
USA Budget 1 Trillion 300 Billion "estimated"
Defense Spending - Non defense spending
2018 - $633 Billion - $539 Billion USA
2019 - $700 Billion - $590 Billion USA
2020 - $715 Billion - $605 Billion USA
_______________________________________
Further USA Economic News may be found on the Daytona USA Financial News and Daytona USA World News pages.
|
TRUMP and Budget Concerns: 1-1-2019
The President indicated the Congress should pass sufficient funding for the wall to safeguard the US from unregistered aligns as there appears no other way.
The preceding administration basically had no safeguard in place for immigration for the USA. This lack of protection is becoming more apparent in our economy.
Let's take a brief look at several of theTrump accomplishments with the USA economy:
3.5+ million jobs created since election
Economic growth last quarter hit 4.2 percent
Unemployment claims at a 49-year low
3.9 Million Americans off Food Stamps
Opened ANWR and approved Keystone XL and Dakota Access Pipelines
Medicare program to stop hospitals from overcharging low-income seniors on their drugs
Signed VA Choice Act and VA Accountability Act, expanded VA telehealth services, walk-in-clinics, and same-day urgent primary and mental health care
Increased our coal exports by 60 percent; U.S. oil production recently reached all-time high
Concluded a historic U.S.-Mexico Trade Deal to replace NAFTA. And negotiations with Canada are underway as we speak
Imposed tariffs on China in response to China’s forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft, and their chronically abusive trade practices
Net exports are on track to increase by $59 billion this year
We have begun building the wall . Republicans and a few Democrats want strong borders and no crime infiltration.
Trump has made significant progress with the overall economic picture. Trump has been continuiously blocked by mostly Democrats when he has had proposals for internal progress.
____________________________________
Trump Speculation per Thousand Dollars:
Trumps Initial Personal Income Plan Per from 1/20/2017:
$1000.00 Earnings
+280.00. Inflation at 3.5% over 8 years
$1280.00 Earnings in 8 years
______________________________________
$500.00 Expenses for the $1000. Earnings
+140.00 Inflation at 3.5% over 8 years
$640.00 Expenses in 8 years
______________________________________
+$13,440. End Game per $1000.00 of Income
______________________________________
Benchmark for Real Estate Appreciation 7.5% Annual
______________________________________
$100,000 Home Value 1/1/2017
$178,347 Estimated Value 1/1/2025
+$78,347 End Game Per $100,000
Real Estate Invested
______________________________________
$100,000 Stock Market Investment
$152,308 Yield Estimated at 5.4% Annual
+$52,308 Per $100,000 Invested in the market.
or
+ $5,230 Per $10,000 Invested in the market.
______________________________________
USA Economic Advancement
______________________________________
|
USA PRODUCTIVITY
Projection
1st Quarter 2018 GDP Growth was 2.2% lower than expected. 2nd Qtr is at 4.1%. Third Quarter is 3.5%.
The 9 Month Average 3.2%
4th Quarter Report due
1-27-2019
|
JOB GROWTH
FED indicates Unemployment Benefit Rate up from 3.7% in January 2018 to 4.0 %in June 2018 to 3.7% thru November 2018. Most jobs to existing employed under 40 hours.
Actual Unemployment is closer to 7.6%
|
Above Averages Courtesy of RETV.News
USA ANNUAL INFLATION RATE
Trump Target 2.5% - 3.5%
____
Economic Inflation Range Benchmarks
+1.5% Recession
+2.0% Low to Moderate
+2.5% Moderate Low
+3.0% Moderate
+3.5% Moderate High
____
A Moderate level is necessary to
"Make America Great Again".
Inflation is needed for growth.
____
1.5% is a Top 10 Country Recession Level
2.5% is a Top 10 Country Moderate Level
____
INFLATION RATE
2018 8 Month Average as of
November 1, 2018
2.115%*
| 2018 |
+2.5%* |
Moderate Low |
| 2017 |
+1.9%* |
Low |
| 2016 |
+2.2%* |
Low |
| 2015 |
+1.8%* |
Low |
*COURTESY OF THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
2018 will probably end at a 2.4%-2.5% rate.
_________________________________
RETV News Alert ~ USA First 11 Months
The Average Inflation Rate for January
thru November 2018 is 2.5%.
Fluctuating Inflation Rates as shown indicate economic instability. Upward Inflation Rates show stable growth.
A 3.5%+ Inflation Rate is the rate or value of a economy that is beginning to overheat.
_________________________________
Bureau of Labor Statistics
USA Inflation Rate 2018-17 by the Month
November 2018 Inflation Rate is 2.2%
| January 18 |
1.8% |
Feb. 18 |
1.8% |
| March 18 |
2.1% |
April 18 |
2.1% |
| May 18 |
2.2% |
June 18 |
2.3% |
| July 18 |
2.4% |
August 18 |
2.2% |
| Sept. 18 |
2.3% |
Oct. 18 |
2.5% |
| Nov. 18 |
2.2% |
Dec. 17 |
1.8% |
USA Inflation Rate
Up Probability 0.50% for 2018
All items less food and energy in U.S. city average, all urban consumers, not seasonally adjusted.
|
Revisions Courtesy of:
US Bureau Of Labor Statistics
December, 2018
Inflation Rates adjusted as Reported by
US Bureau of Labor Statistics
all items less food and energy
____________________________________
2021
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION GOALS
OFFICIAL PROJECTIONS
US Budget Deficit: -$4 Trillion 984 Billion
Social Security: -$22 Trillion 765 Billion
Medicare: -$28 Trillion 311 Billion
Total 7/8/2021: -$56 Trillion 060 Billion
Unfunded Liabilities: -$49 Trillion 416 Billion
National Debt 2021: -$22 Trillion 734 Billion
~~2021 estimates are Subject to Revision~~
National Debt: 4/2028:-$21 Trillion 119 Billion
National Debt: 1/2017:-$19Trillion 540 Billion
______________________________________
|
|
REAL ESTATE
USA AVERAGE HOME
INCOME QUALIFIER INFO
1/3/2019
most recent releases
___
Median Individual's Income
August 2018
$32,111. 00^
___
Estimated Average Family Income
$56,516 ^ Up as of Aug. 24, 2017
Census Bureau most Recent Release
___
PURCHASE PRICE $257,700
Loan Amount $206,160
Qualify with 20% Down $51,540.
Qualify with $56,516. Annual $4,709. Mo
___
Loan Rate 4.84% 30 due in 30 Yrs.
Payment $1,087.00 a Month
Taxes and Insurance $249.00
Other Debt $533.33
$1829.33 PITI and Debt per Month
Ratios
23.08/ 39.69
___
Ratios
Housing/Overall Debt
33.00 / 38.00
A Cash Down Payment of 20% is
estimated at $51,540. Plus closing cost and cash reserves of approximately $12,000.00. Total cash required $63,540. to close escrow.
Average USA Family has exited the home ownership market.
|
| Home Loan |
Point Cost Est |
Retail Rate |
| 30/30 - 417K |
0% |
4.84% |
| 5/25 - 417K |
0% |
4.16% |
| 15/15 - 417K |
0% |
4.25% |
| 30/30 + 418K |
0% |
4.72%
|
| Point Cost Lowers Rate |
FNMA FHLMC |
Retail
Averaged Rate |
| Commercial 7 Yr. Fixed Due in 20 $6,000,000. |
0% |
7.375%
|
| Prime Rate |
5.50%
5.25%
5.00%
4.75%
4.50%
4.25%
3.50%
3.25%
|
12-22-2019
9-26-2018
6-12-2018
3/22/2018
12/14/2017
9/30/2017
10/1/2016
10/1/2015
|
Fannie Mae
60 Day Rate Delivery 30/30 YR. |
4.05%
4.54%
4.16%
4.25%
4.28%
4.05%
4.00%
3.58%
|
1-3-2019
10-11-2018
7-13-2018
6-14-2018
5/15/2018
4/04/2018
2/13/2018
12/27/2017
|
|
Foreclosures
USA HOME FORECLOSURES REPORTED
Foreclosure Filings in 2018 -602,827 10/12/2018
Foreclosure Filings in 2017 -676,535 12/31/2017
Foreclosure Filings in 2016 -933,045 12/31/2016
RETV.News Research and Development
CURRENT HISTORY 2018
Foreclosure Filings ~Sept. 2018 602,827 v
Foreclosure Filings ~ Aug. 2018 617,547 v
Foreclosure Filings ~ July 2018 625,439 v
Foreclosure Filings ~ June 2018 633,332 v
Foreclosure Filings ~ May 2018 640,952 v
Foreclosure Filings ~ April. 2018 651,979 v
Note: The above figure does not include defaults, auctions and repositions as shown in the annual figures below. These numbers are the best representation of the activity on the banking market
________
Courtesy of RETV.News 10/12/2018 Update
|
