THE WALL STREET MARKET: 1-3 2019
Wall Street is in a down market that will emerge in due time. The market has has changed since 2016. We have more fluctuations and less span of time between them. This is due to investing in the unstable Euro market. With high profits come high losses.
Bond Yield 2.42%
Bank Interest Rate 2.15% Best
1 Yr. CD Rate 2.35% to 2.70% $5,000.00 to $100,000.00
Savings Rates 1.00% Best
Note: Savings rates on CD have risen. There is a substantial penalty for early withdrawal. e-RETV News in Brief: Research and Development
_______________________________________ FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD 1-3-2019
Overall USA Economy continues to downtrend. Real Estate Home Sales are the most affected for 2018. Nationwide Home Sales were down 6 months in a row emerging sightly in October 2018 at 1.4% and November at 1.6%. With rising interest rates, it is almost a givien that we will not see a 7.5% benchmark growth rate for 2019. RETV.News 1-3-2019 _______________________________________ EDITORIAL VIEWPOINT: The USA economy grew at 3.5% from July thru September 2018. The 2nd quarter of 2018 showed a growth rate of 4.2%. Growth American hasn't seen for almost 10 years. RETV.News 1-03-2019 _______________________________________ REAL ESTATE 2-1-2019 USA HOME SALES Down in 2018 Down 6.4% in December 2018 MEDIAN PRICE -Month to Month 12-30-2018 $253,600 11-30-2018 $257,700 10-30-2018 $255,400 ( from a year ago) 9-30-2018 $258.100 8-31-2018 $264,800 7-31-2018 $269,600 6-31-2018 $276,900 5-31-2018 $264,800 4-30-2018 $257,490 revised 3-15-2018 $240,000 2/13/2017 $246,800 11/30/2017 $248,000 9/30/2017 $245,100 8/30/2017 $253,100 7/30/2017 $263,800 _______________________________________ Editor's Viewpoint: 2019 Real Estate which is the average Americans financial growth model in all probability will be underwater if the FED keeps increasing interest rates. _______________________________________
Editorial Speculation: Janaury 3, 2019 The economy is not growing as quickly as the FED is increasing interest rates. The middle class American will not be able to participate in the growth of the economy as long as this is the case. _______________________________________
Semi Annual Archive from May 2018 article: Next update May 2019. Individual Workers Averaged Income Annual USA Median Income: Source: US Census Bureau
2018 - $31,364 (Up +$0.72 cents a day) 2016 - $31,099 2 Year Wage increase $ 265.00
CPI 2017 - 2.0% 2016 - 1.3%
2 Year Price increase $1,035.01 ( Up -$2.83 cents a day)
Shortfall on income (- $ 770.01 Annual) Prices increased more than income. ______________________________________
Just The Facts: Archive Date FULL TIME WORK DEFINITION CHANGED JANUARY 8, 2015
Changing the ACA's Definition of Full-Time Work. ... Employers may also opt to avoid the mandate by reducing hours and substituting part-time workers for full-time workers. However, contrary to the conventional 40 hour definition of full-time work, the law defines full-time employment as working at least 30 hours per week.Jan 8, 2015
JUST THE FACTS ~ WAGES SHOULD BE CALCULATED BASED ON A 35 HOUR WEEK RATHER THAN 40 HOURS. _______________________________________
PART TIME WORK DEFINITION
A part-time contract is a form of employment that carries fewer hours per week than a full-time job. They work in shifts. The shifts are often rotational. Workers are considered to be part-time if they commonly work "1 hour" or fewer than 30 hours per week. _______________________________________
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USA ECONOMIC NEWS as of April 12, 2018 REAL TIME ANALYSIS Annual Report and Comparison
April 4, 2017 The TRUMP Trek begins to Restore America. Obama leaves a trail of Debt for Americans.
US NATIONAL DEBT: As Of: 4-4-2018 -$21 TRILLION 115 BILLION Up from -$19 TRILLION 963 BILLION 1/20/17 National Debt: Notes In 2008 the National Debt as of January 9, 2008, was 9 Trillion 719 Billion. The National Debt has more than Doubled in the last nine years. -1 Trillion went to the Mortgage Crisis 2008-2009 from the G.W. Bush Administration. An additional 9 Trillion was added to the US National Debt by the Obama Administration. From 2009-2016 the National Debt more than doubled the amount that has been accruing since the 1960's US GDP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: Is Up +879 BILLION to +$19 TRILLION 865 BILLION FROM +$18 TRILLION 986 BILLION SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF CURRENT AND POTENTIAL GROWTH IF NOT CHOKED OFF
4/2018 US DEBT TO GDP RATIO: (-106.29) ^ Up From 4/2017 -104.49% Worse in last 12 Months -1.88% ^ This is due to USA Debt exceeds USA Gross Domestic Product. Current Debt is increasing more than the Gross Domestic Product increase year to date.
Obama has increased the USA Dollar Supply -963 Billion in 12/31/2016 -536 Billion 4/4/2018 Improved 427 Billion fewer dollars printed compared to 12/31/2016 IMPROVED 55%. Result a Lowered USA Debt and public tax burden to date.
Cost to each Taxpayer 12/31/2017 an additional -$2,962.00 Annual. Down to -$1,629.00 4/4/2018 est. With no apparent Benefit to the USA Taxpayer.
As of 4/4/2018 - - - - - The above negative ratio indicates that the USA is spending more money than produces.
In 2018 Congress and President Trump passed 1 Trillion 300 Billion USA Budget. This is the first realistic US Government increase since 9/11. Budget Deficit listed below are for each year shown with a similar amount increasing annually for years not shown. Milestones. Year Deficit Amount 2002 - -$158 Billion - G.W. Bush 2008 - -$459 Billion - G.W. Bush 2012 - -$1 Trillion 87 Billion - Obama 2016 - -$767 Billion - Obama 2017 - -$812 Billion - Obama >Trump 2018 est -$633 Billion - Trump The increasing Debt of the war effort is approaching 1 Trillion Dollars Annually.
This amount is approximately the same amount that is being added to our National Debt annually. -$1 Trillion Dollars of Taxpayer Liability proposed for 2019. Approximately -$1 Trillion Dollars of War Debt over the existing 1 Trillion 200 Billion 2018 Budget.
Without the expanding World War effort the USA in a very stretched sense would be within the proposed budget set for 2018. The USA War Chest is approaching $700 Billion. This is more than 10x that of any other Country in the World. In comparison, FDR Debt of World War II was -$21 Billion Dollars in 1942 and -$55 Billion in 1943 estimated Annual.
2016: The Obama Administration and Congress is -$592 BILLION OVER THE 1 TRILLION 100 BILLION US 2016 BUDGET. Expressed as a percentage that is 53.81% ^ over budget. The Obama, US War chest is 548 Billion. The USA is not a healthy economy at this time.
AAmericans Living in Poverty exceed 42 Million or 12.96% 1/2017. This number has improved as of 4/2018 to just over 39 Million. 2017: Americans Living off Food Stamps is 41 Million1/2017. 4/2018: This number has improved to just under 41 Million. Both sets of numbers encompass different Americans with some duplication.
December 31, 2008, Comparison (year-end)
US NATIONAL DEBT:
-10 TRILLION 447 BILLION
US GDP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT:
+13 TRILLION 976 BILLION
US DEBT TO GDP RATIO: +35.46%
The above positive GDP Ratio reflects a USA economy that has produced more than it has spent.
BOTTOM LINE: 1/31/2017
WORSE 2008 TO 12/31/2016 -41.83% January 31, 2017 -41.15%
THE USA ECONOMY IS OVER -40.00% WORSE AS OF JANUARY 31, 2017 THAN IT WAS IN DECEMBER 31, 2008. Improving This does not include random Money printing.
AVERAGE INFLATION RATE COMPARISON
YEARS INFLATION RATE AVERAGE 2017 TO 2018 1.8% Moderate Low 2009 TO 2016 1.4% Recession 2000 TO 2008 2.9% Moderate
America as a Democracy powered by Capitalism should have a positive "Growth at a Rate." This includes Real Estate and Retail Sales as a Country. In order to do so a 2.5% Inflation Rate is Low and a 3.5% Inflation Rate is Moderate High when compared to USA history and the current Global Economy. See World News page grid. _______________________________________
EXIT BENCHMARK: 3/28/2017 USA Full Time Employment Needed: 1 Million 215 Thousand Americans To get back to 2008 Actual Unemployed Level _______________________________________ USA Overall Debt As of 1/10/2017: Obama EXIT BENCHMARK As of 4/04/2018: Trump Current Performance US Budget Deficit: -$5 Trillion 645 Billion US Budget Deficit: -$6 Trillion 001 Billion Social Security: -$15 Trillion 619 Billion Social Security: -$16 Trillion 877 Billion Medicare: -$27 Trillion 720 Billion Medicare: -$27 Trillion 879 Billion Total 1/10/2017: -$48 Trillion 984 Billion Total 4/04/2018: - $50 Trillion 757 Billion _______________________________________ USA Overall Debt Continued: Total 1/10/2017: Total 4/12/2018: Unfunded Liabilities : -$55 Trillion 777 Billion Unfunded Liabilities: -$62 Trillion 008 Billion National Debt: -$19 Trillion 954 Billion National Debt: -$21 Trillion 931 Billion Federal Reserve Deficit -$3 Trillion 200 Billion Federal Reserve Deficit -$3 Trillion 200 Billion Liability Per USA Taxpayer $875 Thousand 156 Dollars as of 1/10/2017 $929 Thousand 559 Dollars as of 4/12/2018 Real time analysis: 4/2018 Trump FUTURE PROJECTION: 2021 _______________________________________ Not counted above: US Government IOU's to the American Public +2 Trillion 600 Billion + Yield for all Monies Removed from the Social Security Trust Fund completed without voter approval. US Government War Chest: +$633 Billion National Debt Annual Interest: +$225 Billion USA Budget 2018 $1 Trillion 300 Billion _______________________________________
4/4/2018 TODAY ACTUAL
US Budget Deficit: -$6 Trillion 001 Billion Social Security: -$16 Trillion 879 Billion Medicare: -$27 Trillion 879 Billion Additional Unfunded Liabilities+ National Debt -$61 Trillion 917 Billion Liability Per USA Taxpayer $875 Thousand 156 Dollars as of 1/10/2017 $929 Thousand 014 Dollars as of 4/04/2018
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Editor Noted: War Funding is approximately -$633 Billion going up to 1 Trillion annually. In 2015 it was $736 and 2016 $767 Billion.
USA Budget 1 Trillion 300 Billion "estimated" Defense Spending - Non defense spending 2018 - $633 Billion - $539 Billion USA 2019 - $700 Billion - $590 Billion USA 2020 - $715 Billion - $605 Billion USA _______________________________________ Further USA Economic News may be found on the Daytona USA Financial News and Daytona USA World News pages.
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TRUMP and Budget Concerns: 1-1-2019
The President indicated the Congress should pass sufficient funding for the wall to safeguard the US from unregistered aligns as there appears no other way.
The preceding administration basically had no safeguard in place for immigration for the USA. This lack of protection is becoming more apparent in our economy.
Let's take a brief look at several of theTrump accomplishments with the USA economy:
3.5+ million jobs created since election
Economic growth last quarter hit 4.2 percent
Unemployment claims at a 49-year low
3.9 Million Americans off Food Stamps
Opened ANWR and approved Keystone XL and Dakota Access Pipelines
Medicare program to stop hospitals from overcharging low-income seniors on their drugs
Signed VA Choice Act and VA Accountability Act, expanded VA telehealth services, walk-in-clinics, and same-day urgent primary and mental health care
Increased our coal exports by 60 percent; U.S. oil production recently reached all-time high
Concluded a historic U.S.-Mexico Trade Deal to replace NAFTA. And negotiations with Canada are underway as we speak
Imposed tariffs on China in response to China’s forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft, and their chronically abusive trade practices
Net exports are on track to increase by $59 billion this year
We have begun building the wall . Republicans and a few Democrats want strong borders and no crime infiltration.
Trump has made significant progress with the overall economic picture. Trump has been continuiously blocked by mostly Democrats when he has had proposals for internal progress.
____________________________________ Trump Speculation per Thousand Dollars: Trumps Initial Personal Income Plan Per from 1/20/2017: $1000.00 Earnings +280.00. Inflation at 3.5% over 8 years $1280.00 Earnings in 8 years ______________________________________ $500.00 Expenses for the $1000. Earnings +140.00 Inflation at 3.5% over 8 years $640.00 Expenses in 8 years ______________________________________ +$13,440. End Game per $1000.00 of Income ______________________________________ Benchmark for Real Estate Appreciation 7.5% Annual ______________________________________
$100,000 Home Value 1/1/2017 $178,347 Estimated Value 1/1/2025 +$78,347 End Game Per $100,000 Real Estate Invested ______________________________________ $100,000 Stock Market Investment $152,308 Yield Estimated at 5.4% Annual +$52,308 Per $100,000 Invested in the market. or + $5,230 Per $10,000 Invested in the market. ______________________________________
USA Economic Advancement ______________________________________
USA PRODUCTIVITY Projection
1st Quarter 2018 GDP Growth was 2.2% lower than expected. 2nd Qtr is at 4.1%. Third Quarter is 3.5%.
The 9 Month Average 3.2%
4th Quarter Report due 1-27-2019
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JOB GROWTH FED indicates Unemployment Benefit Rate up from 3.7% in January 2018 to 4.0 %in June 2018 to 3.7% thru November 2018. Most jobs to existing employed under 40 hours.
Actual Unemployment is closer to 7.6%
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Above Averages Courtesy of RETV.News USA ANNUAL INFLATION RATE Trump Target 2.5% - 3.5% ____ Economic Inflation Range Benchmarks +1.5% Recession +2.0% Low to Moderate +2.5% Moderate Low +3.0% Moderate +3.5% Moderate High ____
A Moderate level is necessary to "Make America Great Again". Inflation is needed for growth. ____ 1.5% is a Top 10 Country Recession Level 2.5% is a Top 10 Country Moderate Level ____ INFLATION RATE 2018 8 Month Average as of November 1, 2018 2.115%*
2018 |
+2.5%* |
Moderate Low |
2017 |
+1.9%* |
Low |
2016 |
+2.2%* |
Low |
2015 |
+1.8%* |
Low |
*COURTESY OF THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS 2018 will probably end at a 2.4%-2.5% rate. _________________________________ RETV News Alert ~ USA First 11 Months The Average Inflation Rate for January thru November 2018 is 2.5%. Fluctuating Inflation Rates as shown indicate economic instability. Upward Inflation Rates show stable growth. A 3.5%+ Inflation Rate is the rate or value of a economy that is beginning to overheat. _________________________________ Bureau of Labor Statistics USA Inflation Rate 2018-17 by the Month November 2018 Inflation Rate is 2.2%
January 18 |
1.8% |
Feb. 18 |
1.8% |
March 18 |
2.1% |
April 18 |
2.1% |
May 18 |
2.2% |
June 18 |
2.3% |
July 18 |
2.4% |
August 18 |
2.2% |
Sept. 18 |
2.3% |
Oct. 18 |
2.5% |
Nov. 18 |
2.2% |
Dec. 17 |
1.8% |
USA Inflation Rate Up Probability 0.50% for 2018 All items less food and energy in U.S. city average, all urban consumers, not seasonally adjusted. |
Revisions Courtesy of: US Bureau Of Labor Statistics December, 2018 Inflation Rates adjusted as Reported by US Bureau of Labor Statistics all items less food and energy ____________________________________
2021 TRUMP ADMINISTRATION GOALS OFFICIAL PROJECTIONS
US Budget Deficit: -$4 Trillion 984 Billion Social Security: -$22 Trillion 765 Billion Medicare: -$28 Trillion 311 Billion Total 7/8/2021: -$56 Trillion 060 Billion Unfunded Liabilities: -$49 Trillion 416 Billion National Debt 2021: -$22 Trillion 734 Billion ~~2021 estimates are Subject to Revision~~ National Debt: 4/2028:-$21 Trillion 119 Billion National Debt: 1/2017:-$19Trillion 540 Billion ______________________________________
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REAL ESTATE USA AVERAGE HOME INCOME QUALIFIER INFO 1/3/2019 most recent releases ___ Median Individual's Income August 2018 $32,111. 00^ ___ Estimated Average Family Income $56,516 ^ Up as of Aug. 24, 2017 Census Bureau most Recent Release ___ PURCHASE PRICE $257,700 Loan Amount $206,160 Qualify with 20% Down $51,540. Qualify with $56,516. Annual $4,709. Mo ___ Loan Rate 4.84% 30 due in 30 Yrs. Payment $1,087.00 a Month Taxes and Insurance $249.00 Other Debt $533.33 $1829.33 PITI and Debt per Month Ratios 23.08/ 39.69 ___
Ratios Housing/Overall Debt 33.00 / 38.00
A Cash Down Payment of 20% is estimated at $51,540. Plus closing cost and cash reserves of approximately $12,000.00. Total cash required $63,540. to close escrow.
Average USA Family has exited the home ownership market.
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Home Loan |
Point Cost Est |
Retail Rate |
30/30 - 417K |
0% |
4.84% |
5/25 - 417K |
0% |
4.16% |
15/15 - 417K |
0% |
4.25% |
30/30 + 418K |
0% |
4.72%
|
Point Cost Lowers Rate |
FNMA FHLMC |
Retail Averaged Rate |
Commercial 7 Yr. Fixed Due in 20 $6,000,000. |
0% |
7.375%
|
Prime Rate |
5.50% 5.25% 5.00% 4.75% 4.50% 4.25% 3.50% 3.25%
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12-22-2019 9-26-2018 6-12-2018 3/22/2018 12/14/2017 9/30/2017 10/1/2016 10/1/2015
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Fannie Mae 60 Day Rate Delivery 30/30 YR. |
4.05% 4.54% 4.16% 4.25% 4.28% 4.05% 4.00% 3.58%
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1-3-2019 10-11-2018 7-13-2018 6-14-2018 5/15/2018 4/04/2018 2/13/2018 12/27/2017
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Foreclosures USA HOME FORECLOSURES REPORTED Foreclosure Filings in 2018 -602,827 10/12/2018 Foreclosure Filings in 2017 -676,535 12/31/2017 Foreclosure Filings in 2016 -933,045 12/31/2016 RETV.News Research and Development CURRENT HISTORY 2018 Foreclosure Filings ~Sept. 2018 602,827 v Foreclosure Filings ~ Aug. 2018 617,547 v Foreclosure Filings ~ July 2018 625,439 v Foreclosure Filings ~ June 2018 633,332 v Foreclosure Filings ~ May 2018 640,952 v Foreclosure Filings ~ April. 2018 651,979 v
Note: The above figure does not include defaults, auctions and repositions as shown in the annual figures below. These numbers are the best representation of the activity on the banking market ________
Courtesy of RETV.News 10/12/2018 Update
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