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THE WALL STREET MARKET:
Wall Street D J Stock indexes on the 1 month "ROI" rate of return, show as much red ink (loss) or - yields, as seen since the FED Interest Rate Adjustments began in December 16, 2016.
The DJ 52 Week Average is almost all green (gain) or + yields as of 4-10-2018.
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FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD 4-12-2018:
Jerome H. Powell is the new FED Chief appointed by Trump.
FED Meeting March 20 and 21, 2018.
FED raised the Prime Lending Rate +.25% to 4.75%.
Jobs were at their forefront of a stabilizing economy. Yes there are new jobs emerging and the Unemployment Insurance Benefit Rate of Unemployment is down to 4.1%
Powell also cited that the economy Inflation rate was under the FED Target of 2.0%. The USA general economy was downgraded at the meeting to moderate as was household spending and investments in business concerns.
In a Federal Reserve Committee Chair and Board Of Governors Vote of 8 to 0, they feel all is good and improving despite the facts.
2018 Year to date Reports indicate:
Nationwide Real Estate Sales are at (-0.6%), Retail Sales are at (-0.1%) Auto Sales are struggling as GM posted a (-6.9%) decline in February and other Auto Makers are experiencing similar results. Over 39 Million Americans are living at the Poverty level and over 40 Million Americans are on Food Stamps.
The National Debt, Federal Reserve Debt of (-$3.2)Trillion Dollars or more,accruing for the last 8 years have no bearing on the economy other than "let's write it off" or write down. This was also a Board Of Governors and prior Chair Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke of the Federal Reserve Board decision making process.
It appears that the USA out of balance economy will continue without any FED concern or stimulus as they plan to continue raising interest rates at this time.
RETV.News
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EDITORIAL VIEWPOINT:
The FED set a target of inflation at 2.0% before they would start raising interest rates that was never obtained according to the final figures posted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
See Inflation Rate 2018-2017 by the Month in the right column of this page.
RETV.News 4-4-2018
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USA HOME SALES
MEDIAN PRICE - DOWN
3-15-2018 $240,000
2/13/2017 $246,800
11/30/2017 $248,000
9/30/2017 $245,100
8/30/2017 $253,100
7/30/2017 $263,800
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RETV.News 4-12-2018
Editor's Note: When Interest Rates go Up Home Prices and Sold Homes go Down.
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1/10/2017
OBAMA EXIT BENCHMARK
ACTUAL
US Budget Deficit: -$5 Trillion 645 Billion
Social Security: -$15 Trillion 619 Billion
Medicare: -$27 Trillion 720 Billion
Additional Unfunded Liabilities+ National Debt -$55 Trillion 777 Billion
Liability Per USA Taxpayer
$875 Thousand 156 Dollars as of 1/10/2017
National Debt: 1/2017 -$19 Trillion 540 Billion
Over Budget: 1/2017 $5 Trillion+ estimated
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Editor Noted: Current Administration inherited a Implosion Factor economy of -$19.5 Trillion Dollars of National Debt and an escalating war debt averaging -$772 Billion Annually in the last 3 years.
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USA ECONOMIC DATA AS OF
April 12, 2018
REAL TIME ANALYSIS
April 4, 2017
The TRUMP Trek begins to Restore America.
Obama leaves a trail of Debt for Americans.
US NATIONAL DEBT: As Of: 4-4-2018
-$21 TRILLION 115 BILLION Up from
-$19 TRILLION 963 BILLION 1/20/17
National Debt: Notes
In 2008 the National Debt as of January 9, 2008, was 9 Trillion 719 Billion. The National Debt has more than Doubled in the last nine years. -1 Trillion went to the Mortgage Crisis 2008-2009 from the G.W. Bush Administration. An additional 9 Trillion was added to the US National Debt by the Obama Administration. From 2009-2016 the National Debt more than doubled the amount that has been accruing since the 1960's
US GDP GROSS DOMESTIC
PRODUCT: Is Up +879 BILLION to
+$19 TRILLION 865 BILLION
FROM
+$18 TRILLION 986 BILLION
SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF CURRENT AND POTENTIAL GROWTH IF NOT CHOKED OFF
4/2018
US DEBT TO GDP RATIO: (-106.29) ^
Up From 4/2017 -104.49%
Worse in last 12 Months -1.88% ^
This is due to USA Debt exceeds USA Gross Domestic Product. Current Debt is increasing more than the Gross Domestic Product increase year to date.
Obama has increased the USA Dollar Supply
-963 Billion in 12/31/2016
-536 Billion 4/4/2018 Improved
427 Billion fewer dollars printed compared to 12/31/2016 IMPROVED 55%. Result a Lowered USA Debt and public tax burden to date.
Cost to each Taxpayer 12/31/2017
an additional -$2,962.00 Annual.
Down to -$1,629.00 4/4/2018 est.
With no apparent Benefit to the USA Taxpayer.
As of 4/4/2018 - - - - -
The above negative ratio indicates that the USA is spending more money than produces.
In 2018 Congress and President Trump passed 1 Trillion 300 Billion USA Budget.
This is the first realistic US Government increase since 9/11.
Budget Deficit listed below are for each year shown with a similar amount increasing annually for years not shown. Milestones.
Year Deficit Amount
2002 - -$158 Billion - G.W. Bush
2008 - -$459 Billion - G.W. Bush
2012 - -$1 Trillion 87 Billion - Obama
2016 - -$767 Billion - Obama
2017 - -$812 Billion - Obama >Trump
2018 est -$633 Billion - Trump
The increasing Debt of the war effort is approaching 1 Trillion Dollars Annually.
This amount is approximately the same amount that is being added to our National Debt annually. -$1 Trillion Dollars of Taxpayer Liability proposed for 2019.
Approximately -$1 Trillion Dollars of War Debt over the existing 1 Trillion 200 Billion 2018 Budget.
Without the expanding World War effort the USA in a very stretched sense would be within the proposed budget set for 2018.
The USA War Chest is approaching $700 Billion. This is more than 10x that of any other Country in the World.
In comparison, FDR Debt of World War II was -$21 Billion Dollars in 1942 and -$55 Billion in 1943 estimated Annual.
2016:
The Obama Administration and Congress is -$592 BILLION OVER THE 1 TRILLION 100 BILLION US 2016 BUDGET. Expressed as a percentage that is 53.81% ^ over budget. The Obama, US War chest is 548 Billion. The USA is not a healthy economy at this time.
Americans Living in Poverty exceed 42 Million or 12.96% 1/2017. This number has improved as of 4/2018 to just over 39 Million. 2017: Americans Living off Food Stamps is 41 Million1/2017. 4/2018: This number has improved to just under 41 Million. Both sets of numbers encompass different Americans with some duplication.
December 31, 2008, Comparison (year-end)
US NATIONAL DEBT:
-10 TRILLION 447 BILLION
US GDP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT:
+13 TRILLION 976 BILLION
US DEBT TO GDP RATIO: +35.46%
The above positive GDP Ratio reflects a USA economy that has produced more than it has spent.
BOTTOM LINE: 1/31/2017
WORSE 2008 TO 12/31/2016 -41.83%
January 31, 2017 -41.15%
THE USA ECONOMY IS OVER -40.00%
WORSE AS OF JANUARY 31, 2017 THAN
IT WAS IN DECEMBER 31, 2008. Improving
This does not include random Money printing.
AVERAGE INFLATION RATE
COMPARISON
YEARS INFLATION RATE AVERAGE
2017 TO 2018 1.8% Moderate Low
2009 TO 2016 1.4% Recession
2000 TO 2008 2.9% Moderate
America as a Democracy powered by Capitalism should have a positive "Growth at a Rate." This includes Real Estate and Retail Sales as a Country.
In order to do so a 2.5% Inflation Rate is Low and a 3.5% Inflation Rate is Moderate High when compared to USA history and the current Global Economy.
See World News page grid.
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EXIT BENCHMARK: 3/28/2017
USA Full Time Employment Needed:
1 Million 215 Thousand Americans
To get back to 2008 Actual Unemployed Level
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USA Overall Debt
As of 1/10/2017: Obama EXIT BENCHMARK
As of 4/04/2018: Trump Current Performance
US Budget Deficit: -$5 Trillion 645 Billion
US Budget Deficit: -$6 Trillion 001 Billion
Social Security: -$15 Trillion 619 Billion
Social Security: -$16 Trillion 877 Billion
Medicare: -$27 Trillion 720 Billion
Medicare: -$27 Trillion 879 Billion
Total 1/10/2017: -$48 Trillion 984 Billion
Total 4/04/2018: - $50 Trillion 757 Billion
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USA Overall Debt Continued:
Total 1/10/2017:
Total 4/12/2018:
Unfunded Liabilities : -$55 Trillion 777 Billion
Unfunded Liabilities: -$62 Trillion 008 Billion
National Debt: -$19 Trillion 954 Billion
National Debt: -$21 Trillion 931 Billion
Federal Reserve Deficit -$3 Trillion 200 Billion
Federal Reserve Deficit -$3 Trillion 200 Billion
Liability Per USA Taxpayer
$875 Thousand 156 Dollars as of 1/10/2017
$929 Thousand 559 Dollars as of 4/12/2018
Real time analysis: 4/2018
Trump FUTURE PROJECTION: 2021
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Not counted above:
US Government IOU's to the American Public +2 Trillion 600 Billion + Yield for all Monies Removed from the Social Security Trust Fund completed without voter approval.
US Government War Chest: +$633 Billion
National Debt Annual Interest: +$225 Billion
USA Budget 2018 $1 Trillion 300 Billion
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4/4/2018
TODAY
ACTUAL
US Budget Deficit: -$6 Trillion 001 Billion
Social Security: -$16 Trillion 879 Billion
Medicare: -$27 Trillion 879 Billion
Additional Unfunded Liabilities+ National Debt -$61 Trillion 917 Billion
Liability Per USA Taxpayer
$875 Thousand 156 Dollars as of 1/10/2017
$929 Thousand 014 Dollars as of 4/04/2018
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Editor Noted: War Funding is approximately -$633 Billion going up to 1 Trillion annually.
In 2015 it was $736 and 2016 $767 Billion.
USA Budget 1 Trillion 300 Billion "estimated"
Defense Spending - Non defense spending
2018 - $633 Billion - $539 Billion USA
2019 - $700 Billion - $590 Billion USA
2020 - $715 Billion - $605 Billion USA
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Trump USA Report Card:
Real Estate, Retail Sales and Auto Sales and values along with an array of other consumer products not including energy or food have dropped nationally since the onset of the FED's Interest Rate escalation agenda 12/2016 through 2020 initially.
This was initiated with the appeared intent that the Monthly Inflation Rate would top 2.0% annually which has not happened.
The FED has yet to modify their agenda based on the non-performance of the USA economy. Thusly the USA economy is being posed greater difficulty to perform the less than 2.0% minimum monthly target rate.
The future plan of the FED is a +2.5% upward interest rate adjustment from a 3.5% Prime Rate in 2016 to a proposed 6.0% Prime Rate in 2019-2020. This has been and is currently derailing the USA economy as a whole.
The FED's old style government official thinking that hasn't worked in the past and its renewed static position, appears still not to be working. None the less the FED's position on not moving with the USA economy is taking its toll on America and Americans.
Interest Rate increases are primarily used to control a economy that growth rate is becoming overheated. Today this would be a inflation rate of 3.0% increasing over a 12 month period to say 3.5%.
This is not the first time the FED has embarked on a interest rate hike like this. The first time was 2007-2008 just before the mortgage crisis.
With an upcoming Congressional election at the end of the year it may be time to vote in some new style thinking for the future.
The Budget for the USA today is -1 Trillion 200 Billion for annual 2018. This is within the parameters of a reasonable increase based on needs of the economy. The primary budget issue is that military spending takes $633 Billion away for the mid-east war effort. This military expenditure amount is lower than it has been in the past.
Over 52% of the budget gone the day it was passed. The current -$633 Billion military expenditure is substantially lower than the -$767 Billion Obama 2016 Budget and the -$812 Billion 2017 Budget that was passed over to Trump when he became President for 2017.
Details; In the 2018, $1.2 Trillion Budget military expense appropriations are -$589 Billion. The -$589 Billion is approximately $44 Billion less than the amount actually scheduled for the mid-east war effort of -$633 Billion. The current budget -$589/-$633 has the appearance of being lower than in previous years.
In Breaking News, Barsh Hafez al-Assad, President of Syria since 2000 and Arab Ba'ath Socialist Party Leader has alledegly conducted Biochemical terriost/warfare test on a village of his own people. This un-precedented attack parallels Hitler and the Jews holocoust during World War II. Expect the Budget will be at the top end as estimated.
Approximately 10 years ago the Budget for the USA was approximately $800 Billion. Taxes and Gross Domestic Product and other incomes did not cover the reimbursement of the -$800 Billion annual. Therefore there was an accrual of debt to the National Debt. Today, America has only $567 Billion to apply to the United States of America and the cost is 50% or -$400 Billion more than prior 2008.
In 2004 the National Debt was -$7 Trillion Dollars. In January 2017 -$19.5 Trillion plus an additional -$3.2 Trillion in Federal Reserve Bank Debt. The Mortgage Crisis Debt from the G.W. Bush Administratiion of -$1.1 Trillion was from 2008 added in 2010.
The fact is that the prior Obama Administration from 2009 to 2016 doubled the National Debt in just 8 years that had accrued since 1929. The National Debt after the Mortgage Crisis was approximately -$10 Trillion and was over -$19.5 Trillion when Obama left office in 2017.
The above element of the economy brings into focus what is known as the "USA National Debt Implosion Factor".
Simply put "Economic Implosion" is the point where the accumulation debt is accumulating faster than taxes, gross domestic product and other incomes to the country can keep the debt in focus with the future and obtainable economic goals for the country.
It was predicted by some economists in 2012 that the USA would reach an Implosion Level by 2021-2022.
The Debt Limit for Economic Implosion was estimated at -$20 Trillion Dollars of National Debt.
Today the USA is over -$21 Trillion Dollars of National Debt, fueled mostly by the mid-east war cost.
This acceleration of time by accumulating debt is escalating as the cost of Mid- East War(s) continue to expand and diplomatic relations around the world fall apart.
Currently the mid-east war(s) estimate cost for 2018 is between -Five Hundred and Seventy-Eight Billion Dollars and -Three-Quarters of a Trillion Dollars Annual and the war is getting worse. It could go as high as -$812 Billion.
The reality is, other countries have no war cost and are experiencing some "terrorist attacks" but so are we here in the USA. Other Countries military are at home safeguarding their country. The USA military is scattered all over the world risking their lives to do the same, weakening our forces here at home.
The mid-east wars have been raging since the 1960's and before. In other words, the USA mid-east war effort has no end in sight.
To consolidate our "the USA strength" and keep the USA safe a consolidation and deployment of some external forces in key locations is required to help keep "Democracy like" leaders in office and preserve a war-free environment for their people as much as possible. This can in all probability be done for a substantially less cost of lives and impact on the USA budget and have a positive lasting result.
Currently, the existing and future cost appears to be leading up to -$1 Trillion Annual for War. Not to mention, approximately 100,000 or more, American Troops lives at risk that could be saved over the next generation.
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Trump Speculation per Thousand Dollars:
Trumps Initial Personal Income Plan Per from 1/20/2017:
$1000.00 Earnings
+280.00. Inflation at 3.5% over 8 years
$1280.00 Earnings in 8 years
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$500.00 Expenses for the $1000. Earnings
+140.00 Inflation at 3.5% over 8 years
$640.00 Expenses in 8 years
______________________________________
+$13,440. End Game per $1000.00 of Income
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Benchmark for Real Estate Appreciation 7.5% Annual
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$100,000 Home Value 1/1/2017
$178,347 Estimated Value 1/1/2025
+$78,347 End Game Per $100,000
Real Estate Invested
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$100,000 Stock Market Investment
$152,308 Yield Estimated at 5.4% Annual
+$52,308 Per $100,000 Invested in the market.
or
+ $5,230 Per $10,000 Invested in the market.
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USA Economic Advancement
______________________________________
USA ANNUAL INFLATION RATE
Trump Target 2.5% - 3.5%
____
Moderate Inflation Range is
+1.5% Recession
+2.0% Moderate Low
+2.5% Moderate
+3.0% Moderate High
____
Shortfall to Moderate is about -33.3% of the Target Inflation Rate for Growth or "Make America Great Again".
Inflation is needed for growth.
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1.8% Inflation Rate is close to 1.5% Inflation Rate, which is a Top 10 Country Recession Level
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2017-18 12 Month Average
from Feb. 2017 through Feb. 2018
| 2017 |
+1.8% |
Low |
| 2016 |
+2.2% |
Moderate Low |
| 2015 |
+1.8% |
Low |
| 2014 |
+1.7% |
Low |
Above Averages Courtesy of RETV.News
_________________________________
RETV News Alert ~ USA First Quarter
The Average Inflation Rate for Jan., Feb., and Mar. 2018 is 1.9%.
2018 is lagging behind 2017, 2.16% Average
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USA Inflation Rate 2018-17 by the Month
| January 18 |
1.8% |
February18 |
1.8% |
| March 18 |
2.1% |
April 17 |
1.9% |
| May 17 |
1.7% |
June 17 |
1.7% |
| July 17 |
1.7% |
August 17 |
1.7% |
| Sept. 17 |
1.7% |
October 17 |
1.8% |
| Nov. 17 |
1.7% |
Dec. 17 |
1.8% |
USA Inflation Rate Average
2018 Jan.-Feb. 1.8%
2017 July-Dec. 1.7%
2017 Jan.-June 2.0%
|
Inflation Rates 2014-2015-2016-2017-2018
Revisions Courtesy of:
US Bureau Of Labor Statistics
April 4, 2018
Inflation Rates adjusted as Reported by
US Bureau of Labor Statistics
all items less food and energy
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2021
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION GOALS
OFFICIAL PROJECTIONS
US Budget Deficit: -$4 Trillion 984 Billion
Social Security: -$22 Trillion 765 Billion
Medicare: -$28 Trillion 311 Billion
Total 7/8/2021: -$56 Trillion 060 Billion
Unfunded Liabilities: -$49 Trillion 416 Billion
National Debt 2021: -$22 Trillion 734 Billion
~~2021 estimates are Subject to Revision~~
National Debt: 4/2028:-$21 Trillion 119 Billion
National Debt: 1/2017:-$19Trillion 540 Billion
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Editor Noted: The high level of the National Debt now encompasses the Implosion Factor of Debt to Income. Implosion Factor defined is
Debt and Interest propels itself beyond any potential Income stabilization.
A National Debt revision will be required to the above estimate.
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EURO BANK MARKETS EXPERIENCE
1.25% Up To 1.45% ~ 1.375% AVERAGE
"Secured" Interest Rate Yield for 2017
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US FED RAISES PRIME RATE
5 TIMES IN LAST 14 MONTHS,
from 3.25% to 4.75%
The last time the Prime Rate was this high was April 30, 2008 at 5.0%,
just prior to the USA Economic Crash in August 2008. "The Mortgage Crisis"
The last time Mortgage Rates were this high was May 2011 at 4.64%
USA Home Sales continue Down during the Dec. 2017, Jan. 2018 and Feb. 2018 Quarter
(-1.26%) when compared to 2017 and 2016.
USA Retail Sales continue to falter in Dec. 2017, Jan. 2018 and Feb. 2018
(-0.10%)
____________________
Rate Hikes have Adjusted Mortgage Rates
Up to date from +.25% to +.375% Monthly Residential and Commercial Rates are Up over +1.00% from
This is only due to the conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,
or it would be worse.
FED's Plan is to Raise Rates to 5% in 2018
and up to 6% in 2019.
____________________
Tightening Mortgage Loan Underwriting.
Mortgage Loan Rates Manipulated Down
All Rates Trending Up .25% to .375% Monthly
March 30, 2018
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USA HOUSING SALES
FEBRUARY 2018 UP (+3.0%)
JANUARY 2018 DOWN (-3.2%)
DECEMBER 2017 DOWN (-3.6%)
USA Real Estate Growth Negative in 2018
USA Real Estate Growth Non-Existent in 2017
Retail Sales Growth Non-Existent in 2016
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USA AVERAGE HOME
QUICK QUALIFIER INFO
4/15/2018
most recent releases
___
Median Individual's Income
is 50% or more of wage earners.
2018 - $31,761.00^
___
Estimated Average Family Income
$56,516 ^ Up as of Aug. 24, 2017
Census Bureau most Recent Release
___
Loan Amount $192,000 v
Qualify with 20% Down $48,000.
Qualify with $56,516. Annual $4,709. Mo
___
Loan Rate 4.69% 30 due in 30 Yrs.
Payment $995.00 a Month
Taxes and Insurance $249.00
Other Debt $533.33
$1820.33 PITI and Debt per Month
Ratios
26.41 / 37.74
___
Underwriting Variance is estimated
upward at +0%
Ratios
33.00 / 38.00
A Cash Down Payment of 20% is
estimated at $48,000. Plus closing cost and cash reserves of approximately $12,500.00. Total cash required $60,500.00. to close escrow.
Note:
Average Family Savings of $4,350. v
indicates a potential financial ability deficiency to purchase any home over $75,000.
Average USA Family has exited the homeownership market.
|
| Home Loan |
Point Cost Est |
Retail Rate |
| 30/30 - 417K |
0% |
4.69% ^ |
| 5/25 - 417K |
0% |
3.87% ^ |
| 15/15 - 417K |
0% |
4.09% ^ |
| 30/30 + 418K |
0% |
4.56% ^
|
| Point Cost Lowers Rate |
FNMA FHLMC |
Retail
Averaged Rate |
| Commercial 7 Yr. Fixed Due in 20 $6,000,000. |
0% |
7.0%^
|
| Prime Rate |
4.75%
4.50%
4.25%
3.50%
3.25%
|
3/22/2018
12/14/2017
9/30/2017
10/1/2016
10/1/2015
|
Fannie Mae
60 Day Rate Delivery 30/30 YR. |
4.05%
4.00%
3.58%
3.51%
3.47%
3.48%
3.65%
2.94% |
4/04/2018
2/13/2018
12/27/2017
11/01/2017
9/28/2017
8/02/2017
1/09/2017
7/27/2016 |
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Foreclosures
USA HOME FORECLOSURES REPORTED
FForeclosure Filings in 2017 - 676,535
Foreclosure Filings in 2016 - 933,045
Foreclosure Filings in 2015 - 1,100,000
Foreclosure Filings in 2014 - 1,100,000
RETV.News Research and Development
CURRENT HISTORY
Foreclosure Filings ~ April. 2018 651,979 v
Foreclosure Filings ~ Mar. 2018 560,913 v
Foreclosure Filings ~ Feb. 2018 563,951 v
Foreclosure Filings ~ Dec. 2017 607,901 ^? Foreclosure Filings ~ July 2017 499,166 v
Foreclosure Filings ~ For 2016 520,000 =
Note: The above figure does not include defaults, auctions and repositions as shown in the annual figures below. These numbers are the best representation of the activity on the banking market
________
Courtesy of RETV.News 3/15/2018
There is a serious question to the number of foreclosure filings and sizable fluctuation in such a short period.
SPECULATION March 15, 2018:
Home Sales are Down, Retail Sales are Down, Auto Sales are Down again for 2018 and the Senate, Congress and FED has done nothing.
This is a continuing issue with Trump in his administration's efforts to move America forward.
Trump has improved America and Americans position in his first year but has not been able to "move" all the existing political blocks installed by the previous administration from 2008-2016 to rebuild the American infrastructure "the people".
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