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DAYTONA REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT NEWS

Daytona USA Economic News ~ March 31, 2017
FED Agenda ~ Just the Facts


NEWS BRIEF


Wall Street: 
Bull Market Continues with Ups and Downs
Blue Sky Investing at its Best

US Federal Reserve Bank:
Counter Punches The TRUMP USA Recovery Plan
FED Raises Prime Lending Rate to 4.0%

Slide Show:
America's 2017 Future

Real Estate: 2017


Real Estate:
Real Estate Prices Dive -3.7% in February 2017
Primarily Due to Interest Rate Increases

Wall Street
America's Future
Statistics & Comments
USA Home Prices Down and a
Negative -0.40% for 2017

 

Wall Street: STOCK MARKET
Wall Street reacts favorably to the Trump administration and future goals. The market is up and fluctuating between 2000 and 2300 traded shares daily. This is an excellent improvement from pre existing years in a short time span. Blue Sky investing is a yielding investment at this time.

THE GLOBAL MARKET
The Global market is is showing some signs of improvement.

GOVERNMENT
The FED makes it first interest rate hike for 2017. The Prime Lending Rate is now 4.0%. Mortgage Rates have not followed at this time.

This is because of the Government controlled conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac who are moving their rates up ahead of the FED adjustments.

This keeps some of the heat and spotlight off the actual result of the FED's actions temporarily. It's a scheme as Americans have experienced for the last 8 years to soften the Press Blow to Americans.

May be Americans won't notice the government is taking the most important asset of the USA off the table of most First Time Homes Buyers.

In addition, the FED is substantially lowering prices throughout America by their actions. Therefore Sellers can't sell because their step up equity in not enough for the down payment.

The end game is still the same, because if you don't qualify due to higher interest rates or not  a home buyer doesn't have enough cash to move up, you don't buy or sell.

Their has been 0.17% Real Estate Grow in the USA for 2016. And for January and February 2017,  0.40%. There has been a "No Real Estate Growth" pattern for the last 14 months primarily created by the upswing in interest rates.

A FUTURE FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
Editors Viewpoint:

If the Federal Reserve Board continues to micro manage America, the result will be a delayed rebuilding of the USA economy.
_______________________________________

REAL ESTATE FUTURES 
Prime Lending Rates:
The FED is now indicating a tightening concept directed at Americans and America.

This concept really should apply to the FED in a method of repaying the Taxpayer as was promised by Gerorge W. Bush in 2008 for the debts incurred by the mortgage crises. On top of the crises the Obama administration doubled the NATIONAL DEBT.

To date the American Taxpayer has not received any interest or "interest credit" on the debt incurred by the mortgage crises scheme.

The Federal Reserve Bank debt has increased from its -$800 Billion negative annual float to approximately -4 Trillion 500 Billion in just 8 years. Not included in the National Debt.

The FED has done nothing to resolve the issues, other than, again as always looking to  America or the American taxpayer.

Janet Yellen current FED Chair is a Obama appointee and her term expires January 2018.

Who is next and can they turn the FED around?

_______________________________________

 

USA ECONOMIC DATA AS OF 
 up to March 28, 2017


March 28, 2017
The TRUMP Trek begins to Restore America.
Obama leaves a trail of Debt for Americans.

US NATIONAL DEBT: SINCE 1-20-2017

-$19 TRILLION 855 BILLION Down
60 DAYS  Down  -$125 BILLION
National Debt:  Notes
In 2008 the National Debt as of January 9, 2008 was 9 Trillion 719 Billion. The National Debt has more than Doubled in the last 9 years. The National Debt went down in the last 30 days!

US GDP GROSS DOMESTIC
PRODUCT:

+$18 TRILLION 950 BILLION
60 DAYS DOWN -44 BILLION

US DEBT TO GDP RATIO: -104.77%
Improved in last 30 days +.81%
USA Debt exceeds USA Income.


Obama has increased the USA Dollar Supply
-963 Billion in 12/31/2016 
-794 Billion       3/28/2017 Improved
169 Billion less dollars printed
in the last 90 days. IMPROVED 18%

Cost to each Taxpayer 12/31/2017
an additional -$2,962.00  Annual.
Down to         -$2,428.00  3/28/2017
With no apparent Benefit to the USA Taxpayer.

As of 1/31/2107
The above negative ratio indicates that
the USA is spending more money than produces. The Obama Administration and Congress is -$592 BILLION OVER THE 1 TRILLION 100 BILLION US 2016 BUDGET. Expressed as a percentage that is
53.81% ^
over budget. The Obama, US War chest is 548 Billion. The USA is not a healthy economy at this time. Americans Living in Poverty exceed 42 Million or 12.96%. Americans Living off Food Stamps is also over 42 Million. Both sets of number encompass different Americans with some duplication.


December 31, 2008 Comparison (year end)

US NATIONAL DEBT:

-10 TRILLION 447  BILLION

US GDP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT:  

+13 TRILLION 976  BILLION  

US DEBT TO GDP RATIO: +35.46%

The above positive GDP Ratio reflects a USA economy that has produced more than it has spent.   


BOTTOM LINE:    1/31/2017

WORSE   2008 TO 12/31/2016      -41.83%
January 31,2017                            -41.15%

THE USA ECONOMY IS OVER     -40.00%
WORSE AS OF JANUARY 31, 2017  THAN
IT WAS IN DECEMBER 31, 2008. Improving
This does not include random Money printing.


AVERAGE INFLATION RATE
COMPARISON

YEARS                INFLATION RATE AVERAGE
2017  Average.            2.6%    Moderate Low
2009 TO 2016              1.4%    Recession

2000 TO 2008              2.9%    Moderate


America as a Democracy powered
by Capitalism should have a positive
"Growth At A Rate".
In order to do so a 2.5% Inflation Rate is Low and a 3.5% Inflation Rate is Moderate when compared to USA history and the current Global Economy. See World News page grid.
_______________________________________

EXIT BENCHMARK: 3/28/2017
USA Full Time Employment Needed:
1 Million 215 Thousand Americans
To get back to 2008 Actual Unemployed Level
_______________________________________
As of 1/10/2017:      EXIT BENCHMARK
US Budget Deficit: -5 Trillion 645 Billion
Social Security:    -15 Trillion 619 Billion
Medicare:              -27 Trillion 720 Billion
Additional Unfunded Liabilities+ National Debt
                               -55 Trillion 777 Billion
Liability Per USA Taxpayer
$875 Thousand 156 Dollars as of 1/10/2017


 

USA HOME BUYER AND SELLERS
Real Estate in the USA is declining due to  approximately 1.5 Million Americans that are still "actual unemployed" since 2008. In addition Sellers equity has been diminished about -$17,600. since June 2016 to date.

The 1% rise in mortgage interest rates within the same period of time may have also scared away Buyers. Qualifying for a Home Loan is now more difficult than it was 9 months ago and the average American Savings account is also less.


As TRUMP tries to improve America for Americans the FED is counter punching the current Administration with any progress that "appears" to help the USA out of a 8 Year Depression and Recession.

Since Trump began in office the National Debt is  down -$125 Billion and US Money Printing has gone down approximately -18%.

Because of the poor condition of America's internal economy this in all probability will not continue on a permanent basis.
______________________________________
Trump Speculation per Thousand Dollars:
Trumps Initial Plan:
$1000.00  Earnings
  +280.00. Inflation at 3.5% over 8 years
$1280.00   Earnings in 8 years
______________________________________
   $500.00   Expenses for the $1000. Earnings
   +140.00    Inflation at 3.5% over 8 years
   $640.00    Expenses in 8 years
______________________________________
   +$13,440. End Game per $1000.00 of Income
______________________________________
                    Benchmark for Real Estate                               Appreciation 7.5% Annual
______________________________________

$100,000     Home Value 1/1/2017
$178,347     Estimated Value 1/1/2025
+$78,347     End Game Per $100,000
                    Real Estate Invested
______________________________________
$100,000     Stock Market Investment
$152,308      Yield Estimated at 5.4% Annual
+$52,308      Per $100,000 Invested in the market.
or
+   $5,230      Per $10,000 Invested in the market.
_______________________________________

PRODUCTIVITY JOB GROWTH

USA ANNUAL INFLATION RATE
Trump Target 2.5% to 3.5%

2017 +2.6%  Base of Moderate
2016 +1.3% Recession
2015 +0.1% Depression
2014 +1.6% Low


2017 is a 2 Month Average
for January and February.
Courtesy of
RETV.News

Inflation Rates 2014-2015
Courtesy of
US Bureau Of Labor Statistics

_______________________________________

Compass

Market News

House

WILL EURO MARKET INVESTMENT YIELDS IMPROVE IN 2017? LOW MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES EDGE UP to 4.46%  HOME SALES ARE CRUSHED BY FED AND MORTGAGE RATE HIKES 

REAL ESTATE MARCH 2017

 FANNIE AND FREDDIE RATES DRIVE
HOME PRICES LOWER

FED MAY RAISE PRIME RATE
  DESPITE A RECESSIONARY ECONOMY
SINCE 2008
USA HOUSING SALES 
 FOR FEBRUARY DOWN
-3.7%

USA AVERAGE HOME
QUICK QUALIFIER INFO
3/28/2017

Median Individual's Income
2017 - $30,157.
2000 - $28,408.
Estimated Average Family Income
2016 - $52,000
USA Home Median Price
2/28/2017 $228,400 v
Loan Amount $187,720

Income to Qualify with 20% Down $4333.33 Month (or $52,000. Annual)
Loan Rate 4.46% 30 due in 30 Yrs.
Payment $941.00 a Monan eighth
Taxes and Insurance $249.00
Other Debt $533.33
$1723.33 PITI and Debt per Month
Ratios
27.46 / 39.70
The reason the model above still qualifies with the higher interest rate of +1.0% is because home prices have decreased about -$17,600 since July 2016

Underwriting Variance is estimated
upward at +2%
Ratios
33 / 38

Cash Down Payment required is
estimated at $45,680. plus closing cost and cash reserves.

Note:
Red indicates a Potential Deficiency
Average Family Savings $9,594.00 v

Home Loan Point Cost Est Retail Rate
30/30 -417K 0% 4.46%
5/25 -417K 0% 3.41%
15/15 -417K 0% 3.68%
30/30 +418K 0% 4.40%
Point Cost 0%
FNMA FHLMC
UP +1/8%
Commercial 7 Yr. Fixed Due in 20 $6,000,000. 0%  5.95%
Prime Rate 3.75%
Fannie Mae
60 Day Delivery 30/30 YR.
3.67%
3.65%
2.94%
  3/28/2017
  1/09/2017
  7/27/2016

USA HOME FORECLOSURES REPORTED

Foreclosure Filings in 2016 -17  510,298 v
              Courtesy of RETV.News.News
Foreclosure Filings in 2015 - 1,100,000
Foreclosure Filings in 2014 - 1,100,000 
              Courtesy of Realty Track


SPECULATION:

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the two largest Mortgage Banks in the USA. Both are still under the US Government Conservator ship.

The result is, that they are not in really moving with the market. They are moving under the control of the Government.

Therefore, the Fannie Mae 60 Day Delivery Rate went Down and Mortgage Rates rose +1/8th of a percent between the months of February end and March end 2017.

Home prices nationally have been driven lower for the last half of 2016 and January to February 2017.

The Median Price of a Home as of December 31, 2016 was $232,200 and as of February 28, 2017 is $228,400., Down -$3,800.

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