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DAYTONA REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT NEWS ~ SEPTEMBER 29, 2017

 USA enters into a New Recession 2017.  


NEWS BRIEF ~ JUST THE FACTS


Wall Street: 
Wall Streets Focus 


US Federal Reserve Bank:
FED does not reconize USA Recession Economics

Slide Show:
America's Future September 29, 2017


Real Estate: 2017


Real Estate:
Nationwide Home Sales Down -1.7% for August 2017 
 2017 Home Sales Reach Negative Figures (-0.25%)

Wall Street
America's Future
Statistics & Comments
The USA New Recession 2017

 WALL STREET: .

THE GLOBAL MARKET
Wall Street marches on in the Global Investment Market supported by the FED as the USA economy continues to trend downward below 0 growth levels.

GOVERNMENT:

FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD  9-20-2017

RATE HIKE POSITION ~ Unchanged
FED Chair Janet Yellen a Democratic Appointee

of the past Administration 2008-2016 reads into the record of the Federal Reserve " a press release statement" from the FED meeting, September 20, 2017:

Yellen reads regarding,

" Recent economic developments in the outlook".

"Economic activity has been rising moderately this year"

"Business investment has picked up and exports have shown greater strength this year"

"In part improving economic conditions abroad"

"Overall we expected the economy to expand to the moderate pace over the next few years"

9-20-2017

_______________________________________

Editors comment: There was no significant statement(s) addressing Real Estate Growth and Retail Sales in the negative numbers for 2017 and other adverse USA Leading Economic Indicators at this time.
_______________________________________

A FUTURE FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
Editors Viewpoint: 

The new jobs being created are minimum wage jobs and not jobs that are viable to a growing economy.

The comparable difference is a 2 wage earner family at $8.00 per hour has to hold 4+ jobs (2.5 jobs each per wage earner at 30 hours per job or about 60-70 hours a week per wage earner x 2 wage earners) to meet the Gross Income, bottom line purchasing power of the average American financial requirement of $56,516.00. annual income.

Bottom line Purchasing Power is defined as being able to have a home, a car less than 5 years old and go to the store to buy more than just grocery items and a savings and retirement account.

Speculation: 160,000 new jobs at minimum wage of $8.00 per hour is financially equivalent to 64,000 jobs to meet the average viable consumer income at the bottom level.


Partial Reprint of May 3, 2017 editorial.
Higher interest rates is not the answer. Rates need to decrease under 4% to bring the market back to a growth level anytime soon. A possible scenario that may work would be back up to the growth level of the 3.50% 30 years rates as they were in mid 2016. Then look at easing them up annually at .25% if necessary, to maintain a healthy level of growth in the real estate market.
_______________________________________

REAL ESTATE FUTURES EXPANDED:
Prime Lending Rate:

4.25% up +0.75% from 2016.

Speculation:
The first quarter of the a New USA 2017 Recession is in the books.

Washington is to busy with war and international efforts to recognize that the USA is down trending into a deeper recession.

Leading economic indicators that have always driven the Capitalistic USA economy are being ignored.

It appears that the American voter has been put on the back burner or is it the front burner by their elected officials.

Real Estate Sales are in negative figures with Retail Sales at 0% for 2017 and Interest Rates are going up quarterly as we approach the Holiday season.

See Figures" Daytona USA Financial News 9-28-2017


_______________________________________

 

USA ECONOMIC DATA AS OF 
 up to July 6, 2017
October 6, 2017 Update pending.


July 6, 2017
The TRUMP Trek begins to Restore America.
Obama leaves a trail of Debt for Americans.

US NATIONAL DEBT: SINCE 1-20-2017

-$19 TRILLION 963 BILLION Down
180 DAYS  Down  -$17 BILLION
National Debt:  Notes
In 2008 the National Debt as of January 9, 2008 was 9 Trillion 719 Billion. The National  Debt has more than Doubled in the last 9 years. The National Debt is down in the last 180 days!

US GDP GROSS DOMESTIC
PRODUCT:

+$18 TRILLION 986 BILLION
Last 120 DAYS Up +76 BILLION

US DEBT TO GDP RATIO: -104.49%
Improved in last 120 days +1.88%
USA Debt exceeds USA Income.


Obama has increased the USA Dollar Supply
-963 Billion in 12/31/2016 
-754 Billion       7/06/2017 Improved
 209 Billion less dollars printed
in the last 180 days. IMPROVED 20% Lower

Cost to each Taxpayer 12/31/2017
an additional -$2,962.00  Annual.
Down to          $2,310.00  7/06/2017 est.
With no apparent Benefit to the USA Taxpayer.

As of 1/31/2107
The above negative ratio indicates that
the USA is spending more money than produces. The Obama Administration and Congress is -$592 BILLION OVER THE 1 TRILLION 100 BILLION US 2016 BUDGET. Expressed as a percentage that is
53.81% ^
over budget. The Obama, US War chest is 548 Billion. The USA is not a healthy economy at this time. Americans Living in Poverty exceed 42 Million or 12.96%. Americans Living off Food Stamps is 41 Million. Both sets of number encompass different Americans with some duplication.


December 31, 2008 Comparison (year end)

US NATIONAL DEBT:

-10 TRILLION 447  BILLION

US GDP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT:  

+13 TRILLION 976  BILLION  

US DEBT TO GDP RATIO: +35.46%

The above positive GDP Ratio reflects a USA economy that has produced more than it has spent.   


BOTTOM LINE:    1/31/2017

WORSE   2008 TO 12/31/2016      -41.83%
January 31,2017                            -41.15%

THE USA ECONOMY IS OVER     -40.00%
WORSE AS OF JANUARY 31, 2017  THAN
IT WAS IN DECEMBER 31, 2008. Improving
This does not include random Money printing.


AVERAGE INFLATION RATE
COMPARISON

YEARS                INFLATION RATE AVERAGE
2017  Average.            2.21%    Moderate Low
2009 TO 2016              1.4%      Recession

2000 TO 2008              2.9%      Moderate


America as a Democracy powered
by Capitalism should have a positive
"Growth At A Rate".
In order to do so a 2.5% Inflation Rate is Low and a 3.5% Inflation Rate is Moderate when compared to USA history and the current Global Economy. See World News page grid.
_______________________________________

EXIT BENCHMARK: 3/28/2017
USA Full Time Employment Needed:
1 Million 215 Thousand Americans
To get back to 2008 Actual Unemployed Level
_______________________________________
As of 1/10/2017:      EXIT BENCHMARK
US Budget Deficit: -5 Trillion 645 Billion
Social Security:    -15 Trillion 619 Billion
Medicare:              -27 Trillion 720 Billion
Total 1/10/2017     -48 Trillion 984 Billion

Unfunded Liabilities      -55 Trillion 777 Billion
National Debt:                -19 Trillion 954 Billion
Federal Reserve Deficit: -3 Trillion 200 Billion

Liability Per USA Taxpayer
$875 Thousand 156 Dollars as of 1/10/2017
NEXT ANALYSIS 1/10/2018
_______________________________________
Not counted above:
US Government IOU's to the American Public +2 Trillion 600 Billion + Yield for all Monies Removed from the Social Security Trust Fund completed without voter approval.
US Government War Chest:            +633 Billion
National Debt Annual Interest  is:  225 Billion
_______________________________________
~~~~Forecast from 1/20/2017 to 7/8/2021~~~~

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION
OFFICIAL PROJECTIONS FOR "2021"
BASED ON FIRST 180 DAYS IN OFFICE

US Budget Deficit:  -4 Trillion 984 Billion
Social Security:     -22 Trillion 765 Billion
Medicare:               -28 Trillion 311 Billion
Total 7/8/2021:       -56 Trillion 060 Billion
Unfunded Liabilities:   -49 Trillion 416 Billion
National Debt:              -22 Trillion 734 Billion
 ~~2021 estimates are Subject to Revision~~
US Debt 2017:              -67 Trillion 572 Billion
US Debt 1990:              -13 Trillion 385 Billion


ECONOMIC INDICATORS:

The continued abuse by the FED agenda on America is showing signs of success.

Foreclosures have eased up over 95,000 in the last 45 days to 595,607 as of September 28, 2017 . This is the first time in 2017 that forclosures filings have gone up. When Trump took office Foreclosures were at just over 515,000 and had eased down to 499,000 by July despite FED interest rate increases.

The National Debt is now over -20 Trillion Dollars reflecting a poorer USA economy in 2017. In the first 6 months of 2017 the National Debt had gone down slightly.

USA Real Estate current Homes Sales for 2017 is at an alarming (-0.25%) average for 2017. According to the FED Chief and Federal Reserve Governors statement at the September 20-21 meeting the USA economic future looks great!

Mortgage Interest Rates have remained level dispite 3 Prime Rate Increases of +0.75% within the last year. This is only because the Government controls Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in conservatorship since 2008.

It appears the American consmer is aware of the delayed interest rate hikes to come.
______________________________________
Trump Speculation per Thousand Dollars:
Trumps Initial Personal Income Plan Per:
$1000.00  Earnings
  +280.00. Inflation at 3.5% over 8 years
$1280.00   Earnings in 8 years
______________________________________
   $500.00   Expenses for the $1000. Earnings
   +140.00    Inflation at 3.5% over 8 years
   $640.00    Expenses in 8 years
______________________________________
   +$13,440. End Game per $1000.00 of Income
______________________________________
                    Benchmark for Real Estate                               Appreciation 7.5% Annual
______________________________________

$100,000     Home Value 1/1/2017
$178,347     Estimated Value 1/1/2025
+$78,347     End Game Per $100,000
                    Real Estate Invested
______________________________________
$100,000     Stock Market Investment
$152,308      Yield Estimated at 5.4% Annual
+$52,308      Per $100,000 Invested in the market.
or
+   $5,230      Per $10,000 Invested in the market.
_______________________________________

PRODUCTIVITY JOB GROWTH

USA ANNUAL INFLATION RATE
Trump Target +2.5% to +3.5%
____
2017
Is a 8 Month Average
for January through June 2017.

2017 +1.8% 8 Month Average
2016 +1.3% Recession  +2.5%  <
2015 +0.1% Depression +1.0%  <
2014 +1.6% Recession   +1.5%  <




USA Inflation Rate 2017 by the Month

January  2.5% February 2.7%
March  2.2% April   2.4%
May    1.9% June 1.6%
July  1.7% August 1.9%
September % October %
November % December %
USA Average Year To Date 1.8%
Averages Courtesy of  RETV.News


Inflation Rates 2014-2015-2016-2017
Courtesy of
US Bureau Of Labor Statistics

_______________________________________

Compass

Market News

House

 EURO MARKET INVESTMENT YIELDS 
RUN UP WITH WALL STREET
MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES 2017  
LEVEL TO UP TRENDING AS OF SEPT.  2017
HOME SALES  PRICE 2017 LEVELS
 COMPARED TO AUGUST 2016

EURO BANK MARKETS EXPERIENCE
-0% AND +0% ~ 0% AVERAGE
  Interest Rates for 2016 and 2017

USA JOINS EURO WITH
Worldwide Negative Growth in
2017


US FED RAISES PRIME RATE
3 TIMES IN LAST 10 MONTHS,
"FOUR" IS SCHEDULED BEFORE YEAR END
 
RETAIL SALES FOR 2017 0.07%

 Prime Rate Hike to 4.25%, June 14, 2017
Tightening Mortgage Loan Underwriting.

Government Controlled Rates as of:
  9-28-2017


USA HOUSING SALES DOWN -1.6%
3 MONTH AVERAGE
-1.7% FOR AUGUST, -1.3% FOR JULY
AND -1.7% FOR JUNE 2017

 

 USA HOME SALES FOR  2017 IS  -0.25%

USA Real Estate Growth Non-Existent in 2017

USA AVERAGE HOME
QUICK QUALIFIER INFO
7/30/2017
___
Median Individual's Income
is 50% or more of wage earners.
2017 - $30,456.  
2000 - $29,231.  
___
Estimated Average Family Income
2016 - $56,516
___

USA Home Median Price^
7/30/2017 $263,800
___
Loan Amount $211,040

Income to Qualify with 20% Down $4709.66  Qualify with $56,516. Annual
___
Loan Rate 4.25% 30 due in 30 Yrs.
Payment $1038.00 a Month
Taxes and Insurance $249.00
Other Debt $533.33
$1820.33 PITI and Debt per Month
Ratios
27.33 / 38.65
___


The dollar difference in the loan payment amount for a 4.25% mortgage is $1038.00 vs. $894.00 or +$144. more per month when compared to a 3.375% interest rate from a year ago.
___
In addition underwriting guidelines have tightened as rates are planned by the FED to go up to about 5% by 2017 year end and to 6% by year end 2018.
___

Underwriting Variance is estimated
upward at +2%
Ratios
33.00 / 38.00

Cash Down Payment required is
estimated at $52,760. plus closing cost and cash reserves of approximately $12,640.00. Total cash required $63,200.00.

Note: 
Average Family Savings of $8,581.00 v
indicates a potential financial ability deficiency to purchase any home over $75,000.

Average USA Family has exited the home ownership market.

Home Loan Point Cost Est Retail Rate
30/30 - 417K 0% 4.11%
5/25  - 417K 0% 3.38%
15/15 - 417K 0% 3.38%
30/30 +418K 0% 4.06%
Point Cost Lowers Rate
FNMA FHLMC
Retail
Averaged Rate
Commercial 7 Yr. Fixed Due in 20 $6,000,000. 0%  5.75%
Prime Rate

4.25%
3.50%
3.25%

9/30/2017
10/1/2016
10/1/2015

Fannie Mae
60 Day Rate Delivery 30/30 YR.
3.47%
3.48%
3.65%
2.94%
9/28/2017
8/02/2017
1/09/2017
 7/27/2016

USA HOME FORECLOSURES REPORTED
                  UP 96,441 IN 45 DAYS


Foreclosure Filings as of Sept. 2017 595,607 ^

Foreclosure Filings as of July 2017  499,166 v
Note: The above figure does not include defaults, auctions and repositions as shown  in the annual figures below.
         Courtesy of RETV.News 10/1/2017

                             ________

Foreclosure Filings in 2016 -    933,045
Foreclosure
Filings in 2015 - 1,100,000

Foreclosure Filings in 2014 - 1,100,000 
              Courtesy of Realty Track


SPECULATION JULY TO DECEMBER 2017:

Reprint from August 2017

Mortgage Interest Rates have not moved with the Interest Rate Hikes from the FED in recent months.

In order to income qualify for a average priced home of $263,800. you need 2 Americans of the Lower Income Class of $30,000. or less annual  usually working 34 hours or less a week. This class is comprised of over 50%+ of American workers at this time. You must also meet the credit qualifying for the lower Upper Class individuals.
 
Or a top wage earner from the lower Upper Income Class that ears about $25.50 per hour for 40 hours a week, $53,040 annual.

Effectively, at this time the middle class appears to have been eliminated.

Home Values no longer appear to be depressed in the Real Estate Home Buyer market. But they are. The reason for the leveling of home prices throughout the USA is because the lower financial end of the market, homes selling under $250,000 are not selling in as high numbers of purchases for the last 30 to 60 days.

Homes over $250,000 and up have not been impacted by the FED Rate Hikes.


Partial Reprint of May 2017
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the two largest Mortgage Banks in the USA. Both are still under the US Government Conservator ship.

The result is, that mortgage interest rates are not in really moving with the market. They are moving under the control of the Government.

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