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DAYTONA REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT NEWS ~ AUGUST 7, 2017

Washington ignores USA Economics and Financial Markets entering into a New Recession.  


NEWS BRIEF ~ JUST THE FACTS


Wall Street: 
Wall Streets 2017 
Sustained Growth


US Federal Reserve Bank:
Inflation under 2.0%
FED Invokes a New Recession for the USA 8-1-2017

Slide Show:
America's Future August 2017

Real Estate: 2017


Real Estate:
Current Home Sales are down -1.8% for June 2017
Home Values go up as Home Sales go down.

Wall Street
America's Future
Statistics & Comments
Home Prices Up, Sales Go Down

 

WALL STREET: .

THE GLOBAL MARKET
Wall Street reached another volume high in at the beginning of August.

Is any of this inflated stock market being invested into American products and services?
It is doubtful at this time.


Investors are questioning the strength of the Wall Street and Global Investments and it is a good question. 
 

GOVERNMENT:

RESERVE BOARD RATE HIKES 
FED Chair Janet Yellen a Democratic Appointee

of the past Administration reading her press release statement on June 14, 2017 said:

The FED intends to Write Down Hundreds of Billions of Dollars of Debt accumulated since the 2008-2009 Mortgage Crises that was paid off in 2009. Their is no clear indication who actually incurred the FED debt that the FED is writing down.

This will begin in the next couple months  beginning at $10 Billion as the initial Write Down, then $20 Billion, $30 Billion so on. It has not been disclosed exactly how much the total Write Down will be.

In terms of accounting, a write-down is performed to reduce the value of an asset to offset a loss or expense.

In reference to the USA a Write Down affects the "Faith and Credit of the USA" based on its acceptance of other Country's in the Worlds Financial Markets.

An example of this would be devaluation of the the Dollar.


_______________________________________

A FUTURE FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
Editors Viewpoint: 
The ongoing recession will continue indefinitely as the FED moves in this direction.

RETV.News

The FED's viewpoint is that everything is OK because jobs are increasing at 160,000 per month as of May 2017. 


What appears not to be considered is that Jobs are still less than the 2008 figure. Many people hold 2 jobs instead of 1. Average employment income is about 30% less. Most jobs are at minimum wage. Therefore there is no purchasing power remaining.

The FED does not address the fact that if this job increase is a realistic figure why is the productivity "GDP Gross Domestic Product" of America projected to be -1/10th of a percent less for 2017 than 2016 by International Markets. This is a huge negative figure for the USA.

It would appear that if jobs increase then the productivity of products should also increase somewhat. This does not seem to be the end game at this time.

What significance does it have if you produce products that result in standing inventory or reduced productivity?

Is this just another cover to dismiss the FED's adverse actions? America is being priced out of the range of Americans affordability by Political Bureaucrats that are not being responsive to the "Make America Great Again" plan.

Partial Reprint of May 3, 2017 editorial.
Higher interest rates is not the answer. Rates need to decrease under 4% to bring the market back to a growth level anytime soon. A possible scenario that may work would be back up to the growth level of the 3.50% 30 years rates as they were in mid 2016. Then look at easing them up annually at .25% if necessary, to maintain a healthy level of growth in the real estate market.
_______________________________________

REAL ESTATE FUTURES EXPANDED:
Prime Lending Rate: 4.25% ^

Speculation:
Is America is down trending into a New Recession.


A recession may be on the forefront as economic indicators have shown for 2017 depression of Retail Sales, Real Estate and Auto Sales. The USA economy is currently down in all three major financial areas.

Under the projection of the FED to raise interest rates for the 3rd time in 2017, this in all probability will cinch a continuing and another New USA Recession. This recession is being orchestrated by the FED and Washington Bureaucrats who are watching it happen.
_______________________________________

 

USA ECONOMIC DATA AS OF 
 up to July 6, 2017
August 7, 2017 Post data is pending.


July 6, 2017
The TRUMP Trek begins to Restore America.
Obama leaves a trail of Debt for Americans.

US NATIONAL DEBT: SINCE 1-20-2017

-$19 TRILLION 963 BILLION Down
180 DAYS  Down  -$17 BILLION
National Debt:  Notes
In 2008 the National Debt as of January 9, 2008 was 9 Trillion 719 Billion. The National  Debt has more than Doubled in the last 9 years. The National Debt is down in the last 180 days!

US GDP GROSS DOMESTIC
PRODUCT:

+$18 TRILLION 986 BILLION
Last 120 DAYS Up +76 BILLION

US DEBT TO GDP RATIO: -104.49%
Improved in last 120 days +1.88%
USA Debt exceeds USA Income.


Obama has increased the USA Dollar Supply
-963 Billion in 12/31/2016 
-754 Billion       7/06/2017 Improved
 209 Billion less dollars printed
in the last 180 days. IMPROVED 20% Lower

Cost to each Taxpayer 12/31/2017
an additional -$2,962.00  Annual.
Down to          $2,310.00  7/06/2017 est.
With no apparent Benefit to the USA Taxpayer.

As of 1/31/2107
The above negative ratio indicates that
the USA is spending more money than produces. The Obama Administration and Congress is -$592 BILLION OVER THE 1 TRILLION 100 BILLION US 2016 BUDGET. Expressed as a percentage that is
53.81% ^
over budget. The Obama, US War chest is 548 Billion. The USA is not a healthy economy at this time. Americans Living in Poverty exceed 42 Million or 12.96%. Americans Living off Food Stamps is 41 Million. Both sets of number encompass different Americans with some duplication.


December 31, 2008 Comparison (year end)

US NATIONAL DEBT:

-10 TRILLION 447  BILLION

US GDP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT:  

+13 TRILLION 976  BILLION  

US DEBT TO GDP RATIO: +35.46%

The above positive GDP Ratio reflects a USA economy that has produced more than it has spent.   


BOTTOM LINE:    1/31/2017

WORSE   2008 TO 12/31/2016      -41.83%
January 31,2017                            -41.15%

THE USA ECONOMY IS OVER     -40.00%
WORSE AS OF JANUARY 31, 2017  THAN
IT WAS IN DECEMBER 31, 2008. Improving
This does not include random Money printing.


AVERAGE INFLATION RATE
COMPARISON

YEARS                INFLATION RATE AVERAGE
2017  Average.            2.21%    Moderate Low
2009 TO 2016              1.4%      Recession

2000 TO 2008              2.9%      Moderate


America as a Democracy powered
by Capitalism should have a positive
"Growth At A Rate".
In order to do so a 2.5% Inflation Rate is Low and a 3.5% Inflation Rate is Moderate when compared to USA history and the current Global Economy. See World News page grid.
_______________________________________

EXIT BENCHMARK: 3/28/2017
USA Full Time Employment Needed:
1 Million 215 Thousand Americans
To get back to 2008 Actual Unemployed Level
_______________________________________
As of 1/10/2017:      EXIT BENCHMARK
US Budget Deficit: -5 Trillion 645 Billion
Social Security:    -15 Trillion 619 Billion
Medicare:              -27 Trillion 720 Billion
Total 1/10/2017     -48 Trillion 984 Billion

Unfunded Liabilities      -55 Trillion 777 Billion
National Debt:                -19 Trillion 954 Billion
Federal Reserve Deficit: -3 Trillion 200 Billion

Liability Per USA Taxpayer
$875 Thousand 156 Dollars as of 1/10/2017
NEXT ANALYSIS 1/10/2018
_______________________________________
Not counted above:
US Government IOU's to the American Public +2 Trillion 600 Billion + Yield for all Monies Removed from the Social Security Trust Fund completed without voter approval.
US Government War Chest:            +633 Billion
National Debt Annual Interest  is:  225 Billion
_______________________________________
~~~~Forecast from 1/20/2017 to 7/8/2021~~~~

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION
OFFICIAL PROJECTIONS FOR "2021"
BASED ON FIRST 180 DAYS IN OFFICE

US Budget Deficit:  -4 Trillion 984 Billion
Social Security:     -22 Trillion 765 Billion
Medicare:               -28 Trillion 311 Billion
Total 7/8/2021:       -56 Trillion 060 Billion
Unfunded Liabilities:   -49 Trillion 416 Billion
National Debt:              -22 Trillion 734 Billion
 ~~2021 estimates are Subject to Revision~~
US Debt 2017:              -67 Trillion 572 Billion
US Debt 1990:              -13 Trillion 385 Billion


 
REAL ESTATE:

USA HOME AND CONDO PRICES:
Were driven back up in the last 30 to 60 days during the months of June and July nationwide.

The reason for this is the average value of a home moved up approximately $10,000.00 from a May end value of $252,800 to a July end value of $263,800.

This is because number of homes over a $250,000 sales price increased. Home sales from $0 to $250,000.
took an approximated 30% drop in sales figures from a year ago nationwide.

The good news is that some housing hot spots around the USA did well and have soaring appreciation compared to prices and number of sales at the beginning of 2017.

Mortgage interest rates have hovered in the 4% range despite the 3 FED Prime Lending Hikes.
This is a controlled interest rate environment by the FED as the FEDs outline of future interest rates as of June 14, 2017 is 5% by year end 2017. Then up to 6% by year end 2018.

______________________________________
Trump Speculation per Thousand Dollars:
Trumps Initial Personal Income Plan Per:
$1000.00  Earnings
  +280.00. Inflation at 3.5% over 8 years
$1280.00   Earnings in 8 years
______________________________________
   $500.00   Expenses for the $1000. Earnings
   +140.00    Inflation at 3.5% over 8 years
   $640.00    Expenses in 8 years
______________________________________
   +$13,440. End Game per $1000.00 of Income
______________________________________
                    Benchmark for Real Estate                               Appreciation 7.5% Annual
______________________________________

$100,000     Home Value 1/1/2017
$178,347     Estimated Value 1/1/2025
+$78,347     End Game Per $100,000
                    Real Estate Invested
______________________________________
$100,000     Stock Market Investment
$152,308      Yield Estimated at 5.4% Annual
+$52,308      Per $100,000 Invested in the market.
or
+   $5,230      Per $10,000 Invested in the market.
_______________________________________

PRODUCTIVITY JOB GROWTH

USA ANNUAL INFLATION RATE
Trump Target +2.5% to +3.5%
____
2017
Is a 6 Month Average
for January through June 2017.

2017 +2.21% 6 Month Average
2016 +1.3% Recession  +2.5%  <
2015 +0.1% Depression +1.0%  <
2014 +1.6% Recession   +1.5%  <




USA Inflation Rate 2017 by the Month

January  2.5% February 2.7%
March  2.2% April   2.4%
May    1.9% June 1.6%
July % August %
September % October %
November % December %
Averages Courtesy of  RETV.News


Inflation Rates 2014-2015-2016-2017
Courtesy of
US Bureau Of Labor Statistics

_______________________________________

Compass

Market News

House

 EURO MARKET INVESTMENT YIELDS 
RUN UP WITH WALL STREET
MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES 2017  
UP TRENDING AS OF JULY  2017
HOME SALES  PRICE 2017 LEVELS
 COMPARED TO JUNE 2016

EURO BANK MARKETS EXPERIENCE

-0% AND +0%
   0% AVERAGE
  INTEREST RATES IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS

Worldwide Negative Growth
2016-2017


US FED RAISES PRIME RATE
3 TIMES IN LAST 10 MONTHS,
"FOUR"
 
RETAIL SALES fFOR 2017 +0.08%

 Prime Rate Hike to 4.25%, June 14, 2017
tightens Mortgage Loan Underwriting.
  7-28-2017


USA HOUSING SALES DOWN -1.8% 
FOR JUNE 2017

 USA HOME SALES FOR  2017 IS + 0.16%

USA Real Estate Growth Non-Existent as USA Home Prices Level

USA AVERAGE HOME
QUICK QUALIFIER INFO
7/30/2017
___
Median Individual's Income
is 50% or more of wage earners.
2017 - $30,361.  
2000 - $29,231.  
___
Estimated Average Family Income
2016 - $56,516
___

USA Home Median Price^
7/30/2017 $263,800
___
Loan Amount $211,040

Income to Qualify with 20% Down $4709.66  Qualify with $56,516. Annual
___
Loan Rate 4.25% 30 due in 30 Yrs.
Payment $1038.00 a Month
Taxes and Insurance $249.00
Other Debt $533.33
$1820.33 PITI and Debt per Month
Ratios
27.33 / 38.65
___


The dollar difference in the loan payment amount for a 4.25% mortgage is $1038.00 vs. $894.00 or +$144. more per month when compared to a 3.375% interest rate from a year ago.
___
In addition underwriting guidelines have tightened as rates are planned by the FED to go up to about 5% by 2017 year end and to 6% by year end 2018.
___

Underwriting Variance is estimated
upward at +2%
Ratios
33.00 / 38.00

Cash Down Payment required is
estimated at $52,760. plus closing cost and cash reserves of approximately $12,640.00. Total cash required $63,200.00.

Note: 
Average Family Savings of $8,581.00 v
indicates a potential financial ability deficiency to purchase any home over $75,000.
Average USA Family has exited the home ownership market.

Home Loan Point Cost Est Retail Rate
30/30 - 417K 0% 4.17%
5/25  - 417K 0% 3.30%
15/15 - 417K 0% 3.45%
30/30 +418K 0% 4.11%
Point Cost Lowers Rate
FNMA FHLMC
Retail
Averaged Rate
Commercial 7 Yr. Fixed Due in 20 $6,000,000. 0%  5.75%
Prime Rate

 4.25%

   8/02/2017
Fannie Mae
60 Day Rate Delivery 30/30 YR.
3.48%
3.65%
2.94%
  8/02/2017
  1/09/2017
  7/27/2016

USA HOME FORECLOSURES REPORTED

Foreclosure Filings as of July 2017  499,166 v
Note: The above figure does not include defaults, auctions and repositions as shown  in the annual figures below.
         Courtesy of RETV.News. 6/1/2017

Foreclosure Filings in 2016 -    933,045
Foreclosure
Filings in 2015 - 1,100,000

Foreclosure Filings in 2014 - 1,100,000 
              Courtesy of Realty Track


SPECULATION JULY TO DECEMBER 2017:

Mortgage Interest Rates have not moved with the Interest Rate Hikes from the FED in recent months.

In order to income qualify for a average priced home of $263,800. you need 2 Americans of the Lower Income Class of $30,000. or less annual  usually working 34 hours or less a week. This class is comprised of over 50%+ of American workers at this time. You must also meet the credit qualifying for the lower Upper Class individuals.
 
Or a top wage earner from the lower Upper Income Class that ears about $25.50 per hour for 40 hours a week, $53,040 annual.

Effectively, at this time the middle class appears to have been eliminated.

Home Values no longer appear to be depressed in the Real Estate Home Buyer market. But they are. The reason for the leveling of home prices throughout the USA is because the lower financial end of the market, homes selling under $250,000 are not selling in as high numbers of purchases for the last 30 to 60 days.

Homes over $250,000 and up have not been impacted by the FED Rate Hikes.


Partial Reprint of May 2017
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the two largest Mortgage Banks in the USA. Both are still under the US Government Conservator ship.

The result is, that mortgage interest rates are not in really moving with the market. They are moving under the control of the Government.

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